Group 1 Automotive Inc (GPI)
Group 1 Automotive, Inc., operates in the automotive retail industry. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.03% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $407.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $150.09 (58.39%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.36% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 30, 2020
End date: January 25, 2023
a = 4.9952
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0840
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0840) – 1
= 39.93%
December 30, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y170)
= Exp(a + b × X170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9952 + 0.0002 × 245 + 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(5.2150)
= $184.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y170)
= Exp(a + b × X170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9952 + 0.0002 × 245 – 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(4.8790)
= $131.50
January 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9952 + 0.0002 × 1,001 + 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(5.3749)
= $215.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9952 + 0.0002 × 1,001 – 2 × 0.0840)
= Exp(5.0389)
= $154.30
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.03% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $407.11 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $150.09 (58.39%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2022
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 4.3552
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0800
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 41.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0800) – 1
= 37.69%
March 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y485)
= Exp(a + b × X485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3552 + 0.0009 × 701 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(5.1798)
= $177.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y485)
= Exp(a + b × X485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3552 + 0.0009 × 701 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(4.8600)
= $129.03
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3552 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(6.2457)
= $515.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3552 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(5.9258)
= $374.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.36% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.