Group 1 Automotive Inc (GPI)
Group 1 Automotive, Inc., operates in the automotive retail industry. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.48% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $337.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $97.63 (40.76%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.58% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: January 25, 2023
a = 4.9542
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0819
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0819) – 1
= 38.76%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9542 + 0.0002 × 530 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(5.2227)
= $185.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9542 + 0.0002 × 530 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(4.8951)
= $133.63
January 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9542 + 0.0002 × 1,279 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(5.3706)
= $214.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y881)
= Exp(a + b × X881 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9542 + 0.0002 × 1,279 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(5.0430)
= $154.94
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.48% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $337.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $97.63 (40.76%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.2165
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0759
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0759) – 1
= 35.45%
March 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y676)
= Exp(a + b × X676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2165 + 0.0009 × 979 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(5.2044)
= $182.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y676)
= Exp(a + b × X676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2165 + 0.0009 × 979 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.9010)
= $134.42
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2165 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(5.9279)
= $375.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2165 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(5.6244)
= $277.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.58% per annum.
- GPI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.