Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)
Lithia Motors, Inc. is a leading automobile retailer in the United States, headquartered in Medford, Oregon. The company operates a vast network of dealerships across several states, offering a diverse range of new and used vehicles, as well as automotive services. With a strong emphasis on customer experience and operational efficiency, Lithia has consistently delivered robust financial performance and growth. As a dynamic player in the automotive retail sector, Lithia is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging market trends and consumer preferences.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.95% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of December 19, 2025 was $343.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.69% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of December 19, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LAD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2022
End date: December 19, 2025
a = 5.1978
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1091
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1091) – 1
= 54.69%
September 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y427)
= Exp(a + b × X427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1978 + 0.0004 × 619 + 2 × 0.1091)
= Exp(5.6374)
= $280.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y427)
= Exp(a + b × X427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1978 + 0.0004 × 619 – 2 × 0.1091)
= Exp(5.2011)
= $181.47
December 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1978 + 0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1091)
= Exp(6.0680)
= $431.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1978 + 0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1091)
= Exp(5.6318)
= $279.15
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 13.95% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of December 19, 2025 was $343.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 23, 2024
End date: December 19, 2025
a = 6.3383
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0757
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0757) – 1
= 35.36%
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3383 + -0.0003 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(6.0126)
= $408.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3383 + -0.0003 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.7098)
= $301.81
December 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3383 + -0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.8688)
= $353.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3383 + -0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.5661)
= $261.40
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.69% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of December 19, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.