Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)
Lithia Motors, Inc. is a leading automobile retailer in the United States, headquartered in Medford, Oregon. The company operates a vast network of dealerships across several states, offering a diverse range of new and used vehicles, as well as automotive services. With a strong emphasis on customer experience and operational efficiency, Lithia has consistently delivered robust financial performance and growth. As a dynamic player in the automotive retail sector, Lithia is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging market trends and consumer preferences.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.37% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of December 5, 2025 was $328.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.10% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of December 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LAD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2022
End date: October 6, 2025
a = 5.1578
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1088
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1088) – 1
= 54.50%
September 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y438)
= Exp(a + b × X438 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1578 + 0.0004 × 634 + 2 × 0.1088)
= Exp(5.6236)
= $276.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y438)
= Exp(a + b × X438 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1578 + 0.0004 × 634 – 2 × 0.1088)
= Exp(5.1886)
= $179.22
October 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1578 + 0.0004 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.1088)
= Exp(6.0662)
= $431.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1578 + 0.0004 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.1088)
= Exp(5.6312)
= $278.98
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.37% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of December 5, 2025 was $328.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 23, 2024
End date: December 2, 2025
a = 6.4614
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0730
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0730) – 1
= 33.89%
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4614 + -0.0004 × 1,416 + 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(6.0176)
= $410.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4614 + -0.0004 × 1,416 – 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(5.7258)
= $306.67
December 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4614 + -0.0004 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(5.8490)
= $346.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4614 + -0.0004 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0730)
= Exp(5.5571)
= $259.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.10% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of December 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.