Lithia Motors Inc (LAD)
Lithia Motors, Inc. is an automobile retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Medford, Oregon.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.79% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $290.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.85% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LAD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 4.9244
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1086
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1086) – 1
= 54.40%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y598)
= Exp(a + b × X598 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 867 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9244 + 0.0005 × 867 + 2 × 0.1086)
= Exp(5.5902)
= $267.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y598)
= Exp(a + b × X598 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 867 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9244 + 0.0005 × 867 – 2 × 0.1086)
= Exp(5.1559)
= $173.45
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9244 + 0.0005 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.1086)
= Exp(6.0580)
= $427.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9244 + 0.0005 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.1086)
= Exp(5.6236)
= $276.89
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.79% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $290.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 11, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 9.1214
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0554
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0554) – 1
= 24.79%
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1214 + -0.0019 × 1,657 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(6.0988)
= $445.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,657 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1214 + -0.0019 × 1,657 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(5.8773)
= $356.84
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1214 + -0.0019 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(5.7811)
= $324.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.1214 + -0.0019 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(5.5596)
= $259.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.85% per annum.
- LAD price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.