AutoZone Inc (AZO)
AutoZone, Inc. is an American retailer of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories, the largest in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.31% per annum.
- AZO price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $2,952.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.23% per annum.
- AZO price at the close of May 3, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.01 (0.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 9, 2021
End date: February 26, 2024
a = 7.1652
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0497
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 17.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0497) – 1
= 22.02%
November 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y635)
= Exp(a + b × X635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1652 + 0.0004 × 918 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(7.6662)
= $2,134.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y635)
= Exp(a + b × X635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 918 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1652 + 0.0004 × 918 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(7.4672)
= $1,749.75
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1652 + 0.0004 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(8.0332)
= $3,081.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1652 + 0.0004 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(7.8342)
= $2,525.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 17.31% per annum.
- AZO price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $2,952.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 12.8247
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0143
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0143) – 1
= 5.89%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8247 + -0.0027 × 1,779 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(8.1076)
= $3,319.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,779 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8247 + -0.0027 × 1,779 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(8.0504)
= $3,135.00
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8247 + -0.0027 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(8.0063)
= $2,999.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.8247 + -0.0027 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(7.9490)
= $2,832.78
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.23% per annum.
- AZO price at the close of May 3, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.01 (0.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.