AutoZone Inc (AZO)
AutoZone, Inc. is an American retailer of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories, the largest in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.60% per annum.
- AZO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $3,617.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.05% per annum.
- AZO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2021
End date: March 4, 2025
a = 7.2947
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0477
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0477) – 1
= 21.03%
October 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2947 + 0.0005 × 540 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(7.6425)
= $2,084.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y374)
= Exp(a + b × X374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2947 + 0.0005 × 540 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(7.4516)
= $1,722.70
March 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2947 + 0.0005 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(8.2173)
= $3,704.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2947 + 0.0005 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0477)
= Exp(8.0264)
= $3,060.78
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.60% per annum.
- AZO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $3,617.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2024
End date: April 4, 2025
a = 6.1073
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.36%
October 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1073 + 0.0012 × 1,640 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(8.0641)
= $3,178.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1073 + 0.0012 × 1,640 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(7.9747)
= $2,906.40
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1073 + 0.0012 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(8.2518)
= $3,834.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1073 + 0.0012 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(8.1624)
= $3,506.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 53.05% per annum.
- AZO price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.