Stock Price Trends

Valvoline Inc (VVV)

Valvoline Inc. (VVV), headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky, is a leading provider of automotive and engine maintenance products and services, recognized for its innovation and quality in the aftermarket sector. The company specializes in the manufacture and marketing of a wide range of lubricants, coolants, and other maintenance products, catering to both commercial and consumer markets. With a robust distribution network and a commitment to sustainability, Valvoline is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities within the evolving automotive landscape. Its strategic focus on customer service and product excellence underscores Valvoline's status as a trusted partner in engine care.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.32% per annum.
  • VVV price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $31.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.58% per annum.
  • VVV price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VVV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 21, 2024
End date: December 12, 2025

a = 4.2804

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0606

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0606) – 1
= 27.41%

February 21, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2804 + -0.0004 × 1,164 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.9087)
= $49.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2804 + -0.0004 × 1,164 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.6665)
= $39.11

December 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2804 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.6293)
= $37.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2804 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.3871)
= $29.58

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.32% per annum.
  • VVV price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $31.03 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 13, 2025
End date: December 12, 2025

a = 8.3028

b = -0.0027

s = 0.0294

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0294) – 1
= 12.49%

August 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3028 + -0.0027 × 1,703 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.7759)
= $43.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3028 + -0.0027 × 1,703 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.6582)
= $38.79

December 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3028 + -0.0027 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.4501)
= $31.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3028 + -0.0027 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.3323)
= $28.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.58% per annum.
  • VVV price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.