Valvoline Inc (VVV)
Valvoline Inc. (VVV), headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky, is a leading provider of automotive and engine maintenance products and services, recognized for its innovation and quality in the aftermarket sector. The company specializes in the manufacture and marketing of a wide range of lubricants, coolants, and other maintenance products, catering to both commercial and consumer markets. With a robust distribution network and a commitment to sustainability, Valvoline is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities within the evolving automotive landscape. Its strategic focus on customer service and product excellence underscores Valvoline's status as a trusted partner in engine care.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.32% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $31.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.58% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VVV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2024
End date: December 12, 2025
a = 4.2804
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0606
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0606) – 1
= 27.41%
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2804 + -0.0004 × 1,164 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.9087)
= $49.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2804 + -0.0004 × 1,164 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.6665)
= $39.11
December 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2804 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.6293)
= $37.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2804 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0606)
= Exp(3.3871)
= $29.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.32% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $31.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 13, 2025
End date: December 12, 2025
a = 8.3028
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0294
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0294) – 1
= 12.49%
August 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3028 + -0.0027 × 1,703 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.7759)
= $43.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3028 + -0.0027 × 1,703 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.6582)
= $38.79
December 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3028 + -0.0027 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.4501)
= $31.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3028 + -0.0027 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0294)
= Exp(3.3323)
= $28.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.58% per annum.
- VVV price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.