Asbury Automotive Group Inc (ABG)
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. is an automobile retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.32% per annum.
- ABG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $254.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.30% per annum.
- ABG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 5.0076
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1025
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1025) – 1
= 50.67%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y364)
= Exp(a + b × X364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0076 + 0.0002 × 527 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(5.3280)
= $206.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y364)
= Exp(a + b × X364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0076 + 0.0002 × 527 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(4.9181)
= $136.74
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0076 + 0.0002 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(5.6088)
= $272.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0076 + 0.0002 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(5.1988)
= $181.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.32% per annum.
- ABG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $254.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 17, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.7606
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0859
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0859) – 1
= 40.99%
November 17, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7606 + 0.0004 × 842 + 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(5.2607)
= $192.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7606 + 0.0004 × 842 – 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(4.9172)
= $136.62
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7606 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(5.6437)
= $282.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7606 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0859)
= Exp(5.3001)
= $200.36
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.30% per annum.
- ABG price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.