Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
Murphy USA Inc. is a leading retailer of motor fuel and convenience merchandise, operating over 1,500 locations across the United States primarily in non-urban markets. Headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, the company capitalizes on its strategic positioning to deliver a strong value proposition to customers, combining competitive fuel pricing with a diverse range of high-quality convenience offerings. With a focus on operational excellence and enhancing customer experience, Murphy USA continues to expand its market presence while maintaining robust profitability and a strong commitment to shareholder value.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.24% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of March 11, 2026 was $444.91 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $46.00 (11.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.39% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of March 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MUSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: January 2, 2026
a = 7.1283
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0592
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0592) – 1
= 26.74%
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1283 + -0.0007 × 1,221 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(6.4051)
= $604.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y839)
= Exp(a + b × X839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1283 + -0.0007 × 1,221 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(6.1681)
= $477.30
January 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1283 + -0.0007 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(6.0356)
= $418.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1283 + -0.0007 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(5.7987)
= $329.86
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.24% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of March 11, 2026 was $444.91 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $46.00 (11.53%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 31, 2025
End date: March 11, 2026
a = 5.0986
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0466
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0466) – 1
= 20.51%
July 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0986 + 0.0005 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(6.0064)
= $406.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0986 + 0.0005 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(5.8199)
= $336.94
March 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0986 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(6.1198)
= $454.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0986 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(5.9333)
= $377.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 20.39% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of March 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.