Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
Murphy USA Inc. is a leading retailer of motor fuel and convenience merchandise, operating over 1,500 locations across the United States primarily in non-urban markets. Headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, the company capitalizes on its strategic positioning to deliver a strong value proposition to customers, combining competitive fuel pricing with a diverse range of high-quality convenience offerings. With a focus on operational excellence and enhancing customer experience, Murphy USA continues to expand its market presence while maintaining robust profitability and a strong commitment to shareholder value.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.63% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of December 11, 2025 was $396.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 211.74% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of December 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MUSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 18, 2024
End date: December 11, 2025
a = 7.2652
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.66%
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y902)
= Exp(a + b × X902 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2652 + -0.0007 × 1,312 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(6.4106)
= $608.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y902)
= Exp(a + b × X902 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2652 + -0.0007 × 1,312 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(6.1821)
= $484.03
December 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2652 + -0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(6.0332)
= $417.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2652 + -0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(5.8048)
= $331.88
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.63% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of December 11, 2025 was $396.06 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2025
End date: December 11, 2025
a = 0.3054
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0166
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 211.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0166) – 1
= 6.87%
November 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3054 + 0.0031 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(5.9084)
= $368.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3054 + 0.0031 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(5.8420)
= $344.46
December 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3054 + 0.0031 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(6.0174)
= $410.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3054 + 0.0031 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0166)
= Exp(5.9510)
= $384.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 211.74% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of December 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.