Stock Price Trends

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA)

murphy usa is proud to be one of the highest volume convenience retailers in the united states. headquartered in el dorado, murphy usa opened its first store in chattanooga, tenn., in december 1996. today, murphy usa operates more than 1,270 stores in 23 states and employs more than 9,000 people. the stores provide quality, low-priced fuels and outstanding service to nearly 2 million customers every day to get them where they need to go. such exponential growth speaks to murphy’s commitment to provide quality fuels, convenient locations and best-in-class customer service. today, the company continues to move forward for the benefit of its customers, investors, employees and other valued partners by making solid alliances, responsible investments and smarter business practices. murphy usa is always going the extra mile to help folks buy smarter and drive farther!

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.31% per annum.
  • MUSA price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $418.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.40% per annum.
  • MUSA price at the close of March 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $26.26 (6.69%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MUSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

February 28, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

December 4, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 74.31% per annum.
  • MUSA price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $418.89 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

September 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

February 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.40% per annum.
  • MUSA price at the close of March 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $26.26 (6.69%).