Murphy USA Inc (MUSA)
Murphy USA Inc. is a leading retailer of motor fuel and convenience merchandise, operating over 1,500 locations across the United States primarily in non-urban markets. Headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, the company capitalizes on its strategic positioning to deliver a strong value proposition to customers, combining competitive fuel pricing with a diverse range of high-quality convenience offerings. With a focus on operational excellence and enhancing customer experience, Murphy USA continues to expand its market presence while maintaining robust profitability and a strong commitment to shareholder value.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.24% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of February 3, 2026 was $434.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $25.25 (6.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 155.19% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of February 3, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.11 (0.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MUSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 15, 2024
End date: January 2, 2026
a = 7.1547
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0592
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0592) – 1
= 26.74%
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y864)
= Exp(a + b × X864 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1547 + -0.0007 × 1,257 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(6.4067)
= $605.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y864)
= Exp(a + b × X864 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1547 + -0.0007 × 1,257 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(6.1697)
= $478.07
January 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1547 + -0.0007 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(6.0372)
= $418.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1547 + -0.0007 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(5.8003)
= $330.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.24% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of February 3, 2026 was $434.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $25.25 (6.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 30, 2025
End date: January 23, 2026
a = 1.4341
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 155.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 8.00%
October 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4341 + 0.0026 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.9104)
= $368.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4341 + 0.0026 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(5.8334)
= $341.52
January 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4341 + 0.0026 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(6.1285)
= $458.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4341 + 0.0026 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(6.0516)
= $424.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 155.19% per annum.
- MUSA price at the close of February 3, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.11 (0.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.