CarMax Inc (KMX)
CarMax Inc. (Ticker: KMX) is a leading retailer of used vehicles in the United States, providing a unique, customer-centric shopping experience through its extensive network of locations and robust online platform. The company operates primarily through two segments: CarMax Sales Operations, which focuses on the retail of used cars, and CarMax Auto Finance, offering financing solutions to enhance vehicle purchases. With a commitment to transparency and affordability, CarMax continues to innovate the automotive retail space, leveraging technology to streamline the buying process while expanding its footprint in the rapidly evolving marketplace.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.60% per annum.
- KMX price at the close of December 23, 2025 was $38.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 558.49% per annum.
- KMX price at the close of December 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KMX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 25, 2024
End date: December 23, 2025
a = 7.7514
b = -0.0022
s = 0.1029
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1029) – 1
= 50.95%
November 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y985)
= Exp(a + b × X985 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,432 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7514 + -0.0022 × 1,432 + 2 × 0.1029)
= Exp(4.7717)
= $118.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y985)
= Exp(a + b × X985 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,432 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7514 + -0.0022 × 1,432 – 2 × 0.1029)
= Exp(4.3599)
= $78.25
December 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7514 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1029)
= Exp(3.8974)
= $49.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7514 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1029)
= Exp(3.4856)
= $32.64
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.60% per annum.
- KMX price at the close of December 23, 2025 was $38.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2025
End date: December 23, 2025
a = -5.6913
b = 0.0052
s = 0.0421
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0052) – 1
= 558.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0421) – 1
= 18.34%
November 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6913 + 0.0052 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(3.5741)
= $35.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6913 + 0.0052 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(3.4057)
= $30.14
December 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6913 + 0.0052 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(3.8168)
= $45.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.6913 + 0.0052 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0421)
= Exp(3.6484)
= $38.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 558.49% per annum.
- KMX price at the close of December 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.