CarMax Inc (KMX)
CarMax is a used vehicle retailer based in the United States. It operates two business segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.18% per annum.
- KMX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $65.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.29 (4.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.21% per annum.
- KMX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KMX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 29, 2022
End date: April 9, 2025
a = 4.0076
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0877
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0877) – 1
= 42.04%
September 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0076 + 0.0002 × 883 + 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.3733)
= $79.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0076 + 0.0002 × 883 – 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.0224)
= $55.83
April 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0076 + 0.0002 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.5722)
= $96.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0076 + 0.0002 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.2212)
= $68.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.18% per annum.
- KMX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $65.11 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.29 (4.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 10.2422
b = -0.0033
s = 0.0510
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -70.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0510) – 1
= 22.63%
January 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2422 + -0.0033 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.5907)
= $98.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2422 + -0.0033 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.3866)
= $80.37
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2422 + -0.0033 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.2887)
= $72.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2422 + -0.0033 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0510)
= Exp(4.0847)
= $59.42
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.21% per annum.
- KMX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.