Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (Advance) is an American automotive aftermarket parts provider. Headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, it serves both professional installer and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.18% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $32.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.83% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 18, 2021
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 6.3242
b = -0.0015
s = 0.1894
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -43.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1894) – 1
= 113.34%
October 18, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y371)
= Exp(a + b × X371 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 537 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3242 + -0.0015 × 537 + 2 × 0.1894)
= Exp(5.8715)
= $354.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y371)
= Exp(a + b × X371 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 537 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3242 + -0.0015 × 537 – 2 × 0.1894)
= Exp(5.1138)
= $166.30
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3242 + -0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1894)
= Exp(3.8771)
= $48.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3242 + -0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1894)
= Exp(3.1193)
= $22.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.18% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $32.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 31, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 5.2432
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1763
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1763) – 1
= 102.43%
May 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y777)
= Exp(a + b × X777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2432 + -0.0009 × 1,127 + 2 × 0.1763)
= Exp(4.6313)
= $102.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y777)
= Exp(a + b × X777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2432 + -0.0009 × 1,127 – 2 × 0.1763)
= Exp(3.9261)
= $50.71
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2432 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1763)
= Exp(4.0340)
= $56.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2432 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1763)
= Exp(3.3287)
= $27.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.83% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.