Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP)
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) is a leading provider of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories in the United States, catering to both professional installers and DIY enthusiasts. Headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, the company operates a vast network of stores and distribution centers, ensuring efficient delivery and availability of products. With a focus on customer satisfaction and an extensive selection of quality automotive components, Advance positions itself as a key player in the growing automotive aftermarket industry, leveraging technological advancements and e-commerce to enhance its market reach and service offerings.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.89% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $51.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.50% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of March 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2024
End date: March 13, 2026
a = 2.8055
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1603
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 26.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1603) – 1
= 89.90%
August 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y869)
= Exp(a + b × X869 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8055 + 0.0007 × 1,261 + 2 × 0.1603)
= Exp(3.9489)
= $51.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y869)
= Exp(a + b × X869 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8055 + 0.0007 × 1,261 – 2 × 0.1603)
= Exp(3.3076)
= $27.32
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8055 + 0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1603)
= Exp(4.3156)
= $74.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8055 + 0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1603)
= Exp(3.6743)
= $39.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.89% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of March 13, 2026 was $51.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 8, 2025
End date: March 13, 2026
a = 5.6548
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1047
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1047) – 1
= 52.04%
July 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6548 + -0.0010 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.1047)
= Exp(4.2943)
= $73.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6548 + -0.0010 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.1047)
= Exp(3.8753)
= $48.20
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6548 + -0.0010 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1047)
= Exp(4.0471)
= $57.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6548 + -0.0010 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1047)
= Exp(3.6281)
= $37.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.50% per annum.
- AAP price at the close of March 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.