AutoNation Inc (AN)
AutoNation, Inc. is an automobile retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.94% per annum.
- AN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $171.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.63% per annum.
- AN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 4.4606
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0837
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0837) – 1
= 39.78%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4606 + 0.0004 × 331 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.7622)
= $117.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4606 + 0.0004 × 331 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(4.4273)
= $83.71
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4606 + 0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(5.3675)
= $214.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4606 + 0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0837)
= Exp(5.0326)
= $153.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.94% per annum.
- AN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $171.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 8.3100
b = -0.0018
s = 0.0424
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0424) – 1
= 18.50%
January 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3100 + -0.0018 × 1,723 + 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.3414)
= $208.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3100 + -0.0018 × 1,723 – 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.1716)
= $176.20
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3100 + -0.0018 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.1606)
= $174.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3100 + -0.0018 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(4.9908)
= $147.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 47.63% per annum.
- AN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.