O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)
O'Reilly Auto Parts is an American auto parts retailer that provides automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States serving both the professional service providers and do-it-yourself customers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.92% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $1,020.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.12% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 12.0233
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0161
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -63.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0161) – 1
= 6.65%
March 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0233 + -0.0028 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(7.0920)
= $1,202.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0233 + -0.0028 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(7.0276)
= $1,127.29
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0233 + -0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(6.9551)
= $1,048.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0233 + -0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(6.8907)
= $983.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.92% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $1,020.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2024
End date: May 8, 2024
a = 15.5183
b = -0.0047
s = 0.0169
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0047) – 1
= -82.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0169) – 1
= 6.98%
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.5183 + -0.0047 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(7.0388)
= $1,139.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.5183 + -0.0047 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(6.9713)
= $1,065.65
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.5183 + -0.0047 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(6.9397)
= $1,032.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.5183 + -0.0047 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(6.8723)
= $965.16
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.12% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.