O’Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY)
O'Reilly Auto Parts is an American auto parts retailer that provides automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States serving both the professional service providers and do-it-yourself customers.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.81% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $1,370.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.16% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 5.4683
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0273
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0273) – 1
= 11.52%
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4683 + 0.0010 × 1,462 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(6.9501)
= $1,043.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4683 + 0.0010 × 1,462 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(6.8411)
= $935.48
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4683 + 0.0010 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(7.2996)
= $1,479.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4683 + 0.0010 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0273)
= Exp(7.1906)
= $1,326.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.81% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $1,370.16 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 25, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 5.6579
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0243
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.19%
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6579 + 0.0009 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(7.0466)
= $1,148.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6579 + 0.0009 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(6.9495)
= $1,042.68
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6579 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(7.2864)
= $1,460.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6579 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(7.1894)
= $1,325.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.16% per annum.
- ORLY price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.