Penske Automotive Group Inc (PAG)
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) is a leading diversified transportation services company based in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, with a robust portfolio that includes commercial and automotive truck dealerships. As a prominent player in the automotive retail sector, PAG has expanded its presence through strategic acquisitions and a commitment to customer service excellence. The company also engages in logistics and transportation services, positioning itself to capitalize on growing market demands and evolving consumer preferences in the automotive industry. With a strong financial performance and a focus on innovation, Penske Automotive is well-equipped to pursue sustainable growth opportunities in the dynamic transportation market.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.48% per annum.
- PAG price at the close of March 12, 2026 was $147.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.89 (0.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.00% per annum.
- PAG price at the close of March 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PAG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2023
End date: March 12, 2026
a = 4.8416
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0551
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0551) – 1
= 24.67%
June 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y559)
= Exp(a + b × X559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8416 + 0.0001 × 809 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(5.0700)
= $159.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y559)
= Exp(a + b × X559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8416 + 0.0001 × 809 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(4.8496)
= $127.69
March 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8416 + 0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(5.2182)
= $184.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8416 + 0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(4.9978)
= $148.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.48% per annum.
- PAG price at the close of March 12, 2026 was $147.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.89 (0.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 20, 2025
End date: March 12, 2026
a = 5.8119
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0386
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.68%
June 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8119 + -0.0004 × 1,558 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.2452)
= $189.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,072)
= Exp(a + b × X1,072 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8119 + -0.0004 × 1,558 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.0910)
= $162.55
March 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8119 + -0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.1357)
= $169.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8119 + -0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(4.9815)
= $145.69
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.00% per annum.
- PAG price at the close of March 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.