Iridium Communications Inc (IRDM)
Iridium Communications Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications products and services to businesses, governments in the United States and other countries, non-governmental organizations, and consumers around the world. The company is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.59% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $23.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.44 (17.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.97% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of April 25, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.09 (11.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IRDM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 29, 2022
End date: September 13, 2024
a = 5.9007
b = -0.0017
s = 0.1064
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1064) – 1
= 53.04%
December 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 975 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9007 + -0.0017 × 975 + 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(4.4384)
= $84.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 975 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9007 + -0.0017 × 975 – 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(4.0128)
= $55.30
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9007 + -0.0017 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(3.3663)
= $28.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9007 + -0.0017 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.1064)
= Exp(2.9407)
= $18.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.59% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of April 25, 2025 was $23.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.44 (17.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 2.9609
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0612
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0612) – 1
= 27.73%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,388 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9609 + 0.0002 × 1,388 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(3.4100)
= $30.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,388 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9609 + 0.0002 × 1,388 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(3.1652)
= $23.69
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9609 + 0.0002 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(3.5070)
= $33.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9609 + 0.0002 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(3.2622)
= $26.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.97% per annum.
- IRDM price at the close of April 25, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.09 (11.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.