Stock Price Trends

Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM)

iridium communications inc. is the only mobile satellite service (mss) company offering pole-to-pole coverage over the entire globe. the iridium constellation of low-earth orbiting (leo), cross-linked satellites provides critical voice and data services for areas not served by terrestrial communication networks. iridium's subscriber growth has been driven by increasing demand for reliable, secure, global communications. iridium serves commercial markets through a worldwide network of hundreds of distributors, and provides services to the u.s. department of defense, and other u.s. and international government agencies. the company's worldwide customer base represent a broad spectrum of industry, including maritime, aeronautical, government/defense, public safety, utilities, oil/gas, mining, forestry, heavy equipment and transportation. iridium is in the planning and development phase for its next-generation satellite constellation, iridium next, which will begin launching and 2015 and r

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.52% per annum.
  • IRDM price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $29.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.07% per annum.
  • IRDM price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IRDM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 20, 2023
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 7.8486

b = -0.0024

s = 0.0674

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.52%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0674) – 1
= 30.93%

April 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8486 + -0.0024 × 1,508 + 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(4.3477)
= $77.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,508 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8486 + -0.0024 × 1,508 – 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(4.0782)
= $59.04

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8486 + -0.0024 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(3.5858)
= $36.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8486 + -0.0024 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0674)
= Exp(3.3163)
= $27.56

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 58.52% per annum.
  • IRDM price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $29.71 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 26, 2023
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 13.6024

b = -0.0056

s = 0.0383

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -87.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0383) – 1
= 16.57%

December 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6024 + -0.0056 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(3.8261)
= $45.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6024 + -0.0056 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(3.6728)
= $39.36

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6024 + -0.0056 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(3.4562)
= $31.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6024 + -0.0056 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0383)
= Exp(3.3029)
= $27.19

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.07% per annum.
  • IRDM price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.