Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)
Lumen Technologies (formerly CenturyLink) is an American telecommunications company headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana, that offers communications, network services, security, cloud solutions, voice, and managed services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.98% per annum.
- LUMN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $1.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.04 (3.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.51% per annum.
- LUMN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LUMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2021
End date: February 9, 2024
a = 5.9482
b = -0.0034
s = 0.2409
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -70.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2409) – 1
= 162.15%
November 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y622)
= Exp(a + b × X622 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 899 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9482 + -0.0034 × 899 + 2 × 0.2409)
= Exp(3.3828)
= $29.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y622)
= Exp(a + b × X622 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 899 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9482 + -0.0034 × 899 – 2 × 0.2409)
= Exp(2.4191)
= $11.24
February 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9482 + -0.0034 × 1,726 + 2 × 0.2409)
= Exp(0.5796)
= $1.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9482 + -0.0034 × 1,726 – 2 × 0.2409)
= Exp(-0.3841)
= $0.68
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 70.98% per annum.
- LUMN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $1.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.04 (3.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 1.1131
b = -0.0004
s = 0.1259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1259) – 1
= 65.44%
July 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,516 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1131 + -0.0004 × 1,516 + 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(0.7136)
= $2.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,516 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1131 + -0.0004 × 1,516 – 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(0.2102)
= $1.23
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1131 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(0.5813)
= $1.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1131 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1259)
= Exp(0.0779)
= $1.08
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.51% per annum.
- LUMN price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.