Stock Price Trends

Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF)

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is a global investment banking and capital markets firm that offers a range of financial services including asset management and direct investments across diverse sectors. Headquartered in New York, the firm has a strong international presence, leveraging its expertise in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia to provide innovative solutions to clients. With a commitment to fostering long-term relationships, Jefferies stands out for its client-centric approach and robust market insights, making it a compelling player in the financial services sector.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 281.51% per annum.
  • JEF price at the close of November 10, 2025 was $55.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $193.38 (77.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.95% per annum.
  • JEF price at the close of November 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JEF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: December 17, 2024

a = -1.1089

b = 0.0037

s = 0.0339

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 281.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0339) – 1
= 14.52%

September 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1089 + 0.0037 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.1241)
= $61.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1089 + 0.0037 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(3.9885)
= $53.97

December 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,030)
= Exp(a + b × X1,030 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1089 + 0.0037 × 1,497 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.4506)
= $85.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,030)
= Exp(a + b × X1,030 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1089 + 0.0037 × 1,497 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.3150)
= $74.81

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 281.51% per annum.
  • JEF price at the close of November 10, 2025 was $55.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $193.38 (77.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 19, 2024
End date: November 10, 2025

a = 5.0292

b = -0.0006

s = 0.1464

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1464) – 1
= 79.58%

September 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0292 + -0.0006 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.1464)
= Exp(4.5115)
= $91.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0292 + -0.0006 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.1464)
= Exp(3.9261)
= $50.71

November 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0292 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1464)
= Exp(4.2715)
= $71.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0292 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1464)
= Exp(3.6861)
= $39.89

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 18.95% per annum.
  • JEF price at the close of November 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.