JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is an American multinational investment bank and financial services holding company headquartered in New York City. JPMorgan Chase is incorporated in Delaware. As a Bulge Bracket bank, it is a major provider of various investment banking and financial services. It is one of America's Big Four banks, along with Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. JPMorgan Chase is considered to be a universal bank and a custodian bank. The J.P. Morgan brand is used by the investment banking, asset management, private banking, private wealth management, and treasury services divisions.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.34% per annum.
- JPM price at the close of October 11, 2024 was $222.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.10% per annum.
- JPM price at the close of October 11, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of JPM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: October 11, 2024
a = 3.7800
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0554
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0554) – 1
= 24.83%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y671)
= Exp(a + b × X671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7800 + 0.0009 × 973 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(4.7367)
= $114.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y671)
= Exp(a + b × X671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7800 + 0.0009 × 973 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(4.5149)
= $91.37
October 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7800 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(5.4764)
= $239.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7800 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(5.2547)
= $191.46
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 37.34% per annum.
- JPM price at the close of October 11, 2024 was $222.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2023
End date: October 11, 2024
a = 3.2618
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0423
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0423) – 1
= 18.44%
August 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2618 + 0.0012 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(5.0146)
= $150.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2618 + 0.0012 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.8454)
= $127.16
October 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2618 + 0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(5.5075)
= $246.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2618 + 0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(5.3383)
= $208.16
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.10% per annum.
- JPM price at the close of October 11, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.