U.S. Bancorp (USB)
U.S. Bancorp is an American bank holding company based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and incorporated in Delaware. The company provides banking, investment, mortgage, trust, and payment services products to individuals, businesses, governmental entities, and other financial institutions.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.98% per annum.
- USB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $45.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.68% per annum.
- USB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.36 (8.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of USB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 20, 2023
End date: May 22, 2024
a = 2.0204
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0746
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0746) – 1
= 34.75%
April 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0204 + 0.0010 × 1,364 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(3.5316)
= $34.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0204 + 0.0010 × 1,364 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(3.2333)
= $25.36
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0204 + 0.0010 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(3.9290)
= $50.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0204 + 0.0010 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(3.6308)
= $37.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.98% per annum.
- USB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $45.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 4.2371
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0296
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0296) – 1
= 12.56%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2371 + -0.0003 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.8008)
= $44.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2371 + -0.0003 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.6825)
= $39.75
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2371 + -0.0003 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.7358)
= $41.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2371 + -0.0003 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.6175)
= $37.24
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.68% per annum.
- USB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.36 (8.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.