# Kirby Corporation (KEX)

Kirby Corporation operates domestic tank barges in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.16% per annum.
- KEX price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $114.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.89% per annum.
- KEX price at the close of November 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of KEX price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2022

End date: November 1, 2024

a = 2.9819

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0799

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1

= 44.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0799) – 1

= 37.66%

#### December 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{778})

= Exp(a + b × X_{778} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,128 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9819 + 0.0010 × 1,128 + 2 × 0.0799)

= Exp(4.2721)

= $71.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{778})

= Exp(a + b × X_{778} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,128 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9819 + 0.0010 × 1,128 – 2 × 0.0799)

= Exp(3.9525)

= $52.06

#### November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9819 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0799)

= Exp(4.9695)

= $143.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(2.9819 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0799)

= Exp(4.6500)

= $104.58

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.16% per annum.
- KEX price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $114.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: May 8, 2024

End date: November 1, 2024

a = 4.5569

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0307

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1

= 4.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0307) – 1

= 13.05%

#### May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,134})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,134} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,647 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.5569 + 0.0001 × 1,647 + 2 × 0.0307)

= Exp(4.8337)

= $125.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,134})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,134} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,647 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.5569 + 0.0001 × 1,647 – 2 × 0.0307)

= Exp(4.7110)

= $111.17

#### November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.5569 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0307)

= Exp(4.8568)

= $128.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.5569 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0307)

= Exp(4.7342)

= $113.77

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.89% per annum.
- KEX price at the close of November 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.