# Kirby Corporation (KEX)

Kirby Corporation operates domestic tank barges in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 124.93% per annum.
- KEX price at the close of August 7, 2024 was $111.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.02 (5.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.41% per annum.
- KEX price at the close of August 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.00 (5.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of KEX price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: October 27, 2023

End date: July 31, 2024

a = 0.8147

b = 0.0022

s = 0.0520

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1

= 124.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1

= 23.10%

#### October 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,063})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,063} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,541 + 2 × s)

= Exp(0.8147 + 0.0022 × 1,541 + 2 × 0.0520)

= Exp(4.3408)

= $76.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,063})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,063} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,541 – 2 × s)

= Exp(0.8147 + 0.0022 × 1,541 – 2 × 0.0520)

= Exp(4.1330)

= $62.36

#### July 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,252})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,252} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)

= Exp(0.8147 + 0.0022 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0520)

= Exp(4.9582)

= $142.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,252})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,252} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)

= Exp(0.8147 + 0.0022 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0520)

= Exp(4.7504)

= $115.63

#### Description

- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 124.93% per annum.
- KEX price at the close of August 7, 2024 was $111.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.02 (5.13%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: May 17, 2024

End date: July 31, 2024

a = 4.3536

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0190

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1

= 9.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0190) – 1

= 7.88%

#### May 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,202})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,202} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,744 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3536 + 0.0002 × 1,744 + 2 × 0.0190)

= Exp(4.8213)

= $124.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,202})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,202} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,744 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3536 + 0.0002 × 1,744 – 2 × 0.0190)

= Exp(4.7455)

= $115.07

#### July 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,252})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,252} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3536 + 0.0002 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0190)

= Exp(4.8398)

= $126.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,252})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,252} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3536 + 0.0002 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0190)

= Exp(4.7640)

= $117.21

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.41% per annum.
- KEX price at the close of August 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.00 (5.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.