Stock Price Trends

Kirby Corporation (KEX)

Kirby Corporation operates domestic tank barges in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.16% per annum.
  • KEX price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $114.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.89% per annum.
  • KEX price at the close of November 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KEX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 6, 2022
End date: November 1, 2024

a = 2.9819

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0799

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 44.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0799) – 1
= 37.66%

December 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9819 + 0.0010 × 1,128 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.2721)
= $71.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y778)
= Exp(a + b × X778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9819 + 0.0010 × 1,128 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(3.9525)
= $52.06

November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9819 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.9695)
= $143.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9819 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.6500)
= $104.58

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 44.16% per annum.
  • KEX price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $114.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 8, 2024
End date: November 1, 2024

a = 4.5569

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0307

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0307) – 1
= 13.05%

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,647 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5569 + 0.0001 × 1,647 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(4.8337)
= $125.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,134)
= Exp(a + b × X1,134 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,647 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5569 + 0.0001 × 1,647 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(4.7110)
= $111.17

November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5569 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(4.8568)
= $128.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5569 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0307)
= Exp(4.7342)
= $113.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.89% per annum.
  • KEX price at the close of November 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

MATX
Matson Inc