Stock Price Trends

Matson Inc (MATX)

Matson, Inc. provides logistics and shipping services. The company is headquartered in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.58% per annum.
  • MATX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $106.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $56.07 (34.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.56% per annum.
  • MATX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.35 (8.06%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MATX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 14, 2022
End date: December 17, 2024

a = 2.7991

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0686

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 62.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.60%

November 14, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7991 + 0.0013 × 929 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.1734)
= $64.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7991 + 0.0013 × 929 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.8988)
= $49.34

December 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7991 + 0.0013 × 1,693 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(5.1907)
= $179.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,167)
= Exp(a + b × X1,167 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7991 + 0.0013 × 1,693 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.9161)
= $136.47

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 62.58% per annum.
  • MATX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $106.62 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $56.07 (34.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 31, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 7.1042

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0378

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.56%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0378) – 1
= 16.34%

October 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1042 + -0.0012 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(5.1278)
= $168.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1042 + -0.0012 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.9765)
= $144.96

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1042 + -0.0012 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.9371)
= $139.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1042 + -0.0012 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(4.7857)
= $119.79

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.56% per annum.
  • MATX price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.35 (8.06%).

See Also

Symbol

Company name

KEX
Kirby Corporation