Kinder Morgan Inc (KMI)
Kinder Morgan, Inc. is one of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America. The company specializes in owning and controlling oil and gas pipelines and terminals.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.31% per annum.
- KMI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $18.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.50% per annum.
- KMI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KMI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2020
End date: February 17, 2023
a = 2.2086
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0819
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0819) – 1
= 38.77%
March 11, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y211)
= Exp(a + b × X211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2086 + 0.0005 × 307 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(2.5209)
= $12.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y211)
= Exp(a + b × X211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2086 + 0.0005 × 307 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(2.1933)
= $8.96
February 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2086 + 0.0005 × 1,380 + 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(3.0399)
= $20.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2086 + 0.0005 × 1,380 – 2 × 0.0819)
= Exp(2.7122)
= $15.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.31% per annum.
- KMI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $18.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: May 2, 2024
a = 2.5399
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0513
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0513) – 1
= 22.76%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y474)
= Exp(a + b × X474 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 687 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5399 + 0.0002 × 687 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(2.7610)
= $15.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y474)
= Exp(a + b × X474 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 687 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5399 + 0.0002 × 687 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(2.5559)
= $12.88
May 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5399 + 0.0002 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(2.9565)
= $19.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5399 + 0.0002 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(2.7514)
= $15.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.50% per annum.
- KMI price at the close of May 8, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.