Stock Price Trends

Dorian LPG Ltd (LPG)

Dorian LPG Ltd., is dedicated to the transportation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) through its LPG tanker trucks worldwide. The company is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.16% per annum.
  • LPG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $21.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.14 (0.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.37% per annum.
  • LPG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LPG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 7, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 7.1772

b = -0.0023

s = 0.0663

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0663) – 1
= 30.37%

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1772 + -0.0023 × 1,468 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(3.9001)
= $49.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1772 + -0.0023 × 1,468 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(3.6349)
= $37.90

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1772 + -0.0023 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(3.0825)
= $21.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1772 + -0.0023 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(2.8173)
= $16.73

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.16% per annum.
  • LPG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $21.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.14 (0.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 8, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 5.2772

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0594

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -36.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0594) – 1
= 26.80%

November 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2772 + -0.0012 × 1,653 + 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.3483)
= $28.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2772 + -0.0012 × 1,653 – 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.1109)
= $22.44

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2772 + -0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(3.1353)
= $22.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2772 + -0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0594)
= Exp(2.8978)
= $18.13

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 36.37% per annum.
  • LPG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.