McKesson Corporation (MCK)
McKesson Corporation is an American company distributing pharmaceuticals and providing health information technology, medical supplies, and care management tools.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.50% per annum.
- MCK price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $555.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.46 (2.87%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.31% per annum.
- MCK price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2022
End date: January 8, 2024
a = 5.1012
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0467
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0467) – 1
= 20.53%
March 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1012 + 0.0006 × 1,042 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(5.8202)
= $337.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y719)
= Exp(a + b × X719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1012 + 0.0006 × 1,042 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(5.6335)
= $279.63
January 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1012 + 0.0006 × 1,704 + 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(6.2177)
= $501.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,704 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1012 + 0.0006 × 1,704 – 2 × 0.0467)
= Exp(6.0309)
= $416.10
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.50% per annum.
- MCK price at the close of May 9, 2024 was $555.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $15.46 (2.87%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 21, 2023
End date: May 9, 2024
a = 4.4057
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0272
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0272) – 1
= 11.50%
February 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4057 + 0.0010 × 1,383 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(5.9021)
= $365.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y952)
= Exp(a + b × X952 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4057 + 0.0010 × 1,383 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(5.7932)
= $328.07
May 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4057 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(6.3640)
= $580.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4057 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0272)
= Exp(6.2551)
= $520.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.31% per annum.
- MCK price at the close of May 9, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.