Henry Schein Inc (HSIC)
Henry Schein, Inc. is an American distributor of health care products and services with a presence in 32 countries.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.65% per annum.
- HSIC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $71.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.20% per annum.
- HSIC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.89 (1.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HSIC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 15, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.7901
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0475
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0475) – 1
= 20.94%
November 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y834)
= Exp(a + b × X834 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7901 + -0.0003 × 1,208 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.5124)
= $91.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y834)
= Exp(a + b × X834 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7901 + -0.0003 × 1,208 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.3222)
= $75.36
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7901 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.3217)
= $75.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7901 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.1315)
= $62.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.65% per annum.
- HSIC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $71.04 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.9165
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0306
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0306) – 1
= 13.03%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9165 + -0.0009 × 1,665 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.4029)
= $81.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9165 + -0.0009 × 1,665 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.2804)
= $72.27
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9165 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.2506)
= $70.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9165 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.1281)
= $62.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.20% per annum.
- HSIC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.89 (1.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.