Henry Schein Inc (HSIC)
Henry Schein, Inc. is an American distributor of health care products and services with a presence in 32 countries.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.42% per annum.
- HSIC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $74.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.93% per annum.
- HSIC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HSIC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 4, 2021
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 4.4283
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0631
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0631) – 1
= 28.69%
May 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y493)
= Exp(a + b × X493 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 715 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4283 + -0.0001 × 715 + 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(4.5065)
= $90.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y493)
= Exp(a + b × X493 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 715 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4283 + -0.0001 × 715 – 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(4.2543)
= $70.41
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4283 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(4.4321)
= $84.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4283 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0631)
= Exp(4.1799)
= $65.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.42% per annum.
- HSIC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $74.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 4.7793
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0480
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0480) – 1
= 21.16%
November 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7793 + -0.0003 × 1,282 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.5080)
= $90.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7793 + -0.0003 × 1,282 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.3160)
= $74.89
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7793 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.3527)
= $77.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7793 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.1607)
= $64.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.93% per annum.
- HSIC price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.