Stock Price Trends

Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)

cardinal health, inc. (nyse: cah), is a global integrated healthcare services and products company, providing customized solutions for hospital systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories and physician offices worldwide. the company provides clinically-proven medical products and pharmaceuticals and cost-effective solutions that enhance supply chain efficiency. cardinal health connects patients, providers, payers, pharmacists and manufacturers for integrated care coordination and better patient management. backed by nearly 100 years of experience, with more than 37,000 employees in nearly 60 countries, cardinal health ranks among the top 25 on the fortune 500. for more information, visit cardinalhealth.com, follow @cardinalhealth on twitter.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.36% per annum.
  • CAH price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $104.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.79% per annum.
  • CAH price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 30, 2021
End date: February 16, 2024

a = 2.9268

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0611

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0611) – 1
= 27.67%

September 30, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y660)
= Exp(a + b × X660 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9268 + 0.0010 × 954 + 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(3.9720)
= $53.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y660)
= Exp(a + b × X660 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9268 + 0.0010 × 954 – 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(3.7278)
= $41.59

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9268 + 0.0010 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(4.8129)
= $123.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9268 + 0.0010 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(4.5686)
= $96.41

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.36% per annum.
  • CAH price at the close of February 16, 2024 was $104.45 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 7, 2023
End date: February 16, 2024

a = 4.5631

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0208

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0208) – 1
= 8.67%

November 7, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5631 + 0.0000 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.6882)
= $108.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5631 + 0.0000 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.6051)
= $99.99

February 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5631 + 0.0000 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.6931)
= $109.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5631 + 0.0000 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.6100)
= $100.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.79% per annum.
  • CAH price at the close of February 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.