Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)
Cardinal Health, Inc. is an American multinational health care services company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.89% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $98.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.82 (10.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.37% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 3.0116
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0640
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0640) – 1
= 29.18%
August 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y510)
= Exp(a + b × X510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0116 + 0.0010 × 738 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(3.8754)
= $48.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y510)
= Exp(a + b × X510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0116 + 0.0010 × 738 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(3.6193)
= $37.31
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0116 + 0.0010 × 1,726 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.8603)
= $129.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0116 + 0.0010 × 1,726 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.6043)
= $99.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.89% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $98.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.82 (10.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 6.6446
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0296
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0296) – 1
= 12.59%
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6446 + -0.0012 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(4.7771)
= $118.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,151)
= Exp(a + b × X1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6446 + -0.0012 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(4.6585)
= $105.48
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6446 + -0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(4.6006)
= $99.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6446 + -0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(4.4820)
= $88.41
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.37% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.