Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)
Cardinal Health, Inc. is an American multinational health care services company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.59% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $99.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.04 (5.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.55% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2021
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 2.8995
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0607
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0607) – 1
= 27.51%
September 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y589)
= Exp(a + b × X589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 854 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8995 + 0.0010 × 854 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(3.8999)
= $49.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y589)
= Exp(a + b × X589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 854 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8995 + 0.0010 × 854 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(3.6569)
= $38.74
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8995 + 0.0010 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(4.8693)
= $130.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8995 + 0.0010 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(4.6263)
= $102.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.59% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $99.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.04 (5.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 9.3567
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0131
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0131) – 1
= 5.36%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3567 + -0.0026 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(4.7608)
= $116.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3567 + -0.0026 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(4.7086)
= $110.90
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3567 + -0.0026 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(4.6063)
= $100.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3567 + -0.0026 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(4.5541)
= $95.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.55% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.