Cardinal Health Inc (CAH)
Cardinal Health, Inc. is an American multinational health care services company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.89% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $139.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.56 (2.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.74% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 3.2743
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0640
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0640) – 1
= 29.18%
August 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2743 + 0.0010 × 462 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(3.8629)
= $47.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2743 + 0.0010 × 462 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(3.6068)
= $36.85
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y999)
= Exp(a + b × X999 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2743 + 0.0010 × 1,450 + 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.8478)
= $127.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y999)
= Exp(a + b × X999 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2743 + 0.0010 × 1,450 – 2 × 0.0640)
= Exp(4.5918)
= $98.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.89% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $139.84 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.56 (2.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2022
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 3.6188
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0605
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0605) – 1
= 27.35%
August 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6188 + 0.0007 × 833 + 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(4.3163)
= $74.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6188 + 0.0007 × 833 – 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(4.0745)
= $58.82
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6188 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(5.0029)
= $148.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6188 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(4.7611)
= $116.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 28.74% per annum.
- CAH price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.