Patterson Companies Inc (PDCO)
Patterson Companies, Inc. distributes and sells dental and animal health products in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. The company is headquartered in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- PDCO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $26.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.91% per annum.
- PDCO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PDCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 2, 2020
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.3772
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0748
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0748) – 1
= 34.87%
December 2, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y341)
= Exp(a + b × X341 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3772 + -0.0001 × 492 + 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(3.4994)
= $33.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y341)
= Exp(a + b × X341 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3772 + -0.0001 × 492 – 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(3.2002)
= $24.54
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3772 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(3.4251)
= $30.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3772 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0748)
= Exp(3.1259)
= $22.78
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.01% per annum.
- PDCO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $26.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 21, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.4759
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0485
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.41%
June 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4759 + -0.0007 × 1,423 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.5586)
= $35.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y981)
= Exp(a + b × X981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4759 + -0.0007 × 1,423 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.3647)
= $28.92
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4759 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.2728)
= $26.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4759 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.0789)
= $21.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.91% per annum.
- PDCO price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.