Stock Price Trends

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc (MCRI)

Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc., owns and operates the Atlantis Casino Resort Spa, a hotel / casino in Reno, Nevada. The company is headquartered in Reno, Nevada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.08% per annum.
  • MCRI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $77.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.74% per annum.
  • MCRI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.20 (3.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCRI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 22, 2021
End date: September 16, 2024

a = 4.0645

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0878

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0878) – 1
= 42.08%

February 22, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0645 + 0.0001 × 299 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.2729)
= $71.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0645 + 0.0001 × 299 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(3.9217)
= $50.48

September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0645 + 0.0001 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.4157)
= $82.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0645 + 0.0001 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0878)
= Exp(4.0645)
= $58.23

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.08% per annum.
  • MCRI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $77.22 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 5, 2023
End date: March 24, 2025

a = 3.2927

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0450

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.74%

September 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2927 + 0.0006 × 1,224 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.1773)
= $65.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y843)
= Exp(a + b × X843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2927 + 0.0006 × 1,224 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(3.9971)
= $54.44

March 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2927 + 0.0006 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.5447)
= $94.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2927 + 0.0006 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.3645)
= $78.61

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.74% per annum.
  • MCRI price at the close of April 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.20 (3.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.