Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a leading gaming and entertainment company based in Louisville, Kentucky, renowned for its iconic horse racing events, including the prestigious Kentucky Derby. The company operates a diversified portfolio that includes racetracks, online wagering platforms, and gaming facilities, leveraging innovative technology to enhance the customer experience. With a focus on growth and strategic expansion, Churchill Downs is well-positioned to capitalize on the burgeoning online betting market, driving robust financial performance and shareholder value.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.12% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $99.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.34% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHDN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2024
End date: October 22, 2025
a = 6.3031
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0676
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0676) – 1
= 31.05%
June 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3031 + -0.0010 × 1,317 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(5.1452)
= $171.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3031 + -0.0010 × 1,317 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.8748)
= $130.95
October 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3031 + -0.0010 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.6573)
= $105.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3031 + -0.0010 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.3868)
= $80.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.12% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $99.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: October 31, 2025
a = 4.6131
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0558
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 24.98%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,613 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6131 + 0.0000 × 1,613 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.7095)
= $111.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,613 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6131 + 0.0000 × 1,613 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.4865)
= $88.81
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6131 + 0.0000 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.7075)
= $110.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6131 + 0.0000 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.4845)
= $88.63
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.34% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.