Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a leading gaming and entertainment company based in Louisville, Kentucky, renowned for its iconic horse racing events, including the prestigious Kentucky Derby. The company operates a diversified portfolio that includes racetracks, online wagering platforms, and gaming facilities, leveraging innovative technology to enhance the customer experience. With a focus on growth and strategic expansion, Churchill Downs is well-positioned to capitalize on the burgeoning online betting market, driving robust financial performance and shareholder value.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.12% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of November 3, 2025 was $98.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.38% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of November 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHDN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2024
End date: October 22, 2025
a = 6.3021
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0676
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0676) – 1
= 31.05%
June 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y905)
= Exp(a + b × X905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3021 + -0.0010 × 1,316 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(5.1452)
= $171.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y905)
= Exp(a + b × X905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3021 + -0.0010 × 1,316 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.8748)
= $130.95
October 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3021 + -0.0010 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.6573)
= $105.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3021 + -0.0010 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.3868)
= $80.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.12% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of November 3, 2025 was $98.61 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2025
End date: November 3, 2025
a = 4.6146
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0556
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.89%
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,612 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6146 + 0.0000 × 1,612 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.7092)
= $110.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,108)
= Exp(a + b × X1,108 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,612 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6146 + 0.0000 × 1,612 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.4869)
= $88.85
November 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6146 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.7070)
= $110.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6146 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.4847)
= $88.65
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.38% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of November 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.