Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a gaming, online betting and racing entertainment company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.95% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $89.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.77 (8.00%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.88% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHDN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 23, 2025
a = 8.5000
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0232
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0232) – 1
= 9.71%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5000 + -0.0021 × 1,652 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(5.0365)
= $153.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,139)
= Exp(a + b × X1,139 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,652 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5000 + -0.0021 × 1,652 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.9438)
= $140.30
April 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5000 + -0.0021 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.6795)
= $107.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5000 + -0.0021 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0232)
= Exp(4.5868)
= $98.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.95% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $89.37 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.77 (8.00%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 14.3251
b = -0.0054
s = 0.0401
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0054) – 1
= -85.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0401) – 1
= 17.39%
March 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3251 + -0.0054 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.8328)
= $125.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3251 + -0.0054 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.6725)
= $106.96
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3251 + -0.0054 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.6183)
= $101.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.3251 + -0.0054 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0401)
= Exp(4.4580)
= $86.31
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.88% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.