Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a gaming, online betting and racing entertainment company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.56% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $137.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.50% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.12 (0.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHDN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 19, 2020
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 4.4954
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0909
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0909) – 1
= 43.84%
November 19, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4954 + 0.0002 × 482 + 2 × 0.0909)
= Exp(4.7735)
= $118.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4954 + 0.0002 × 482 – 2 × 0.0909)
= Exp(4.4099)
= $82.27
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4954 + 0.0002 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0909)
= Exp(5.0392)
= $154.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4954 + 0.0002 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0909)
= Exp(4.6756)
= $107.30
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 7.56% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $137.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 2.0567
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0278
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0278) – 1
= 11.75%
March 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0567 + 0.0016 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.8049)
= $122.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0567 + 0.0016 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.6938)
= $109.27
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0567 + 0.0016 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(5.0357)
= $153.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0567 + 0.0016 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0278)
= Exp(4.9246)
= $137.64
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 79.50% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.12 (0.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.