Penn National Gaming Inc (PENN)
Penn National Gaming, Inc. is an American operator of casinos and racetracks, based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.88% per annum.
- PENN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.95% per annum.
- PENN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PENN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 8, 2020
End date: June 18, 2024
a = 5.2912
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1659
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1659) – 1
= 94.20%
December 8, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y346)
= Exp(a + b × X346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 501 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2912 + -0.0014 × 501 + 2 × 0.1659)
= Exp(4.9016)
= $134.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y346)
= Exp(a + b × X346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 501 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2912 + -0.0014 × 501 – 2 × 0.1659)
= Exp(4.2379)
= $69.26
June 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2912 + -0.0014 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.1659)
= Exp(3.0469)
= $21.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2912 + -0.0014 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.1659)
= Exp(2.3831)
= $10.84
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.88% per annum.
- PENN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 4.5109
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1057
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1057) – 1
= 52.64%
April 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y679)
= Exp(a + b × X679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 984 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5109 + -0.0009 × 984 + 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(3.8387)
= $46.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y679)
= Exp(a + b × X679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 984 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5109 + -0.0009 × 984 – 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(3.4158)
= $30.44
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5109 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(3.0825)
= $21.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5109 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1057)
= Exp(2.6596)
= $14.29
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.95% per annum.
- PENN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.