MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)
MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) is a leading producer of distilled spirits and specialty ingredients, primarily focusing on high-quality wheat proteins and starches for the food industry. Headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, the company leverages its extensive expertise in fermentation and distillation to deliver innovative products that cater to a diverse range of markets, including beverage alcohol, food, and nutraceuticals. With a strong commitment to sustainability and quality, MGP positions itself as a strategic partner for businesses aiming to enhance their product offerings while meeting evolving consumer demands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.56% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $24.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.65% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2023
End date: October 31, 2025
a = 6.8973
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1678
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1678) – 1
= 95.65%
July 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 981 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8973 + -0.0020 × 981 + 2 × 0.1678)
= Exp(5.2287)
= $186.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 981 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8973 + -0.0020 × 981 – 2 × 0.1678)
= Exp(4.5576)
= $95.35
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8973 + -0.0020 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1678)
= Exp(3.5065)
= $33.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8973 + -0.0020 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1678)
= Exp(2.8354)
= $17.04
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.56% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of October 31, 2025 was $24.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 7, 2025
End date: October 31, 2025
a = 5.0007
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0665
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0665) – 1
= 30.48%
January 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0007 + -0.0010 × 1,527 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(3.6623)
= $38.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,050)
= Exp(a + b × X1,050 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,527 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0007 + -0.0010 × 1,527 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(3.3963)
= $29.85
October 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0007 + -0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(3.3761)
= $29.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0007 + -0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0665)
= Exp(3.1101)
= $22.42
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.65% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of October 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.