Stock Price Trends

MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starch food ingredients. The company is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.24% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $45.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.29 (31.87%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.93% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of November 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.06 (22.29%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 1, 2022
End date: October 17, 2024

a = 5.1421

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0862

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0862) – 1
= 41.15%

July 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y669)
= Exp(a + b × X669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1421 + -0.0004 × 970 + 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(4.9060)
= $135.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y669)
= Exp(a + b × X669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1421 + -0.0004 × 970 – 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(4.5614)
= $95.72

October 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1421 + -0.0004 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(4.5528)
= $94.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1421 + -0.0004 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0862)
= Exp(4.2082)
= $67.23

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.24% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $45.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.29 (31.87%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 29, 2023
End date: November 1, 2024

a = 5.9601

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0914

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0914) – 1
= 44.17%

June 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y918)
= Exp(a + b × X918 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9601 + -0.0009 × 1,333 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(4.8956)
= $133.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y918)
= Exp(a + b × X918 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9601 + -0.0009 × 1,333 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(4.5298)
= $92.74

November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9601 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(4.4361)
= $84.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9601 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0914)
= Exp(4.0703)
= $58.58

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.93% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of November 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.06 (22.29%).