MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)
MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) is a leading producer of distilled spirits and specialty ingredients, primarily focusing on high-quality wheat proteins and starches for the food industry. Headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, the company leverages its extensive expertise in fermentation and distillation to deliver innovative products that cater to a diverse range of markets, including beverage alcohol, food, and nutraceuticals. With a strong commitment to sustainability and quality, MGP positions itself as a strategic partner for businesses aiming to enhance their product offerings while meeting evolving consumer demands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.09% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of December 17, 2025 was $25.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.54% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of December 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2023
End date: December 17, 2025
a = 6.7659
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1647
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1647) – 1
= 93.29%
July 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y641)
= Exp(a + b × X641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7659 + -0.0020 × 935 + 2 × 0.1647)
= Exp(5.2101)
= $183.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y641)
= Exp(a + b × X641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7659 + -0.0020 × 935 – 2 × 0.1647)
= Exp(4.5511)
= $94.74
December 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7659 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1647)
= Exp(3.4156)
= $30.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7659 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1647)
= Exp(2.7566)
= $15.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.09% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of December 17, 2025 was $25.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 7, 2025
End date: December 17, 2025
a = 5.0065
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0652
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0652) – 1
= 29.82%
January 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0065 + -0.0010 × 1,481 + 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(3.6585)
= $38.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0065 + -0.0010 × 1,481 – 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(3.3975)
= $29.89
December 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0065 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(3.3151)
= $27.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0065 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(3.0541)
= $21.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.54% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of December 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.