# MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starch food ingredients. The company is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.27% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $79.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.79% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of MGPI price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 13, 2023

End date: April 16, 2024

a = 7.0262

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0485

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1

= -41.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1

= 21.42%

#### July 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,066})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,066} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.0262 + -0.0015 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0485)

= Exp(4.8664)

= $129.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,066})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,066} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.0262 + -0.0015 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0485)

= Exp(4.6723)

= $106.94

#### April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.0262 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0485)

= Exp(4.4611)

= $86.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.0262 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0485)

= Exp(4.2670)

= $71.31

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.27% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $79.08 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: March 27, 2024

End date: April 16, 2024

a = 14.1102

b = -0.0053

s = 0.0140

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1

= -85.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0140) – 1

= 5.77%

#### March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,244})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,244} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)

= Exp(14.1102 + -0.0053 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0140)

= Exp(4.4828)

= $88.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,244})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,244} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)

= Exp(14.1102 + -0.0053 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0140)

= Exp(4.4267)

= $83.65

#### April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(14.1102 + -0.0053 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0140)

= Exp(4.3758)

= $79.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(14.1102 + -0.0053 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0140)

= Exp(4.3198)

= $75.17

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.79% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.