Stock Price Trends

MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starch food ingredients. The company is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.27% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $79.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.79% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 13, 2023
End date: April 16, 2024

a = 7.0262

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0485

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.42%

July 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0262 + -0.0015 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.8664)
= $129.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0262 + -0.0015 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.6723)
= $106.94

April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0262 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.4611)
= $86.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0262 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.2670)
= $71.31

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.27% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of April 16, 2024 was $79.08 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 27, 2024
End date: April 16, 2024

a = 14.1102

b = -0.0053

s = 0.0140

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0140) – 1
= 5.77%

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1102 + -0.0053 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.4828)
= $88.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1102 + -0.0053 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.4267)
= $83.65

April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1102 + -0.0053 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.3758)
= $79.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1102 + -0.0053 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0140)
= Exp(4.3198)
= $75.17

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.79% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of April 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.