Stock Price Trends

MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starch food ingredients. The company is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 87.16% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $30.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.07% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of March 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: March 13, 2025

a = 13.5777

b = -0.0056

s = 0.1039

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -87.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1039) – 1
= 51.55%

August 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5777 + -0.0056 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(4.7947)
= $120.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5777 + -0.0056 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(4.3790)
= $79.76

March 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5777 + -0.0056 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(3.5352)
= $34.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5777 + -0.0056 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1039)
= Exp(3.1195)
= $22.63

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 87.16% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of March 13, 2025 was $30.83 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 20, 2024
End date: March 13, 2025

a = 8.5543

b = -0.0028

s = 0.0310

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -64.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0310) – 1
= 13.22%

December 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5543 + -0.0028 × 1,740 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(3.7367)
= $41.96

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,740 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5543 + -0.0028 × 1,740 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(3.6125)
= $37.06

March 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5543 + -0.0028 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(3.5039)
= $33.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5543 + -0.0028 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0310)
= Exp(3.3797)
= $29.36

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 64.07% per annum.
  • MGPI price at the close of March 13, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.