MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)
MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) is a leading producer of distilled spirits and specialty ingredients, primarily focusing on high-quality wheat proteins and starches for the food industry. Headquartered in Atchison, Kansas, the company leverages its extensive expertise in fermentation and distillation to deliver innovative products that cater to a diverse range of markets, including beverage alcohol, food, and nutraceuticals. With a strong commitment to sustainability and quality, MGP positions itself as a strategic partner for businesses aiming to enhance their product offerings while meeting evolving consumer demands.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.60% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of March 17, 2026 was $17.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.72% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of March 17, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.45 (7.74%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 3, 2023
End date: March 17, 2026
a = 6.4776
b = -0.0019
s = 0.1653
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1653) – 1
= 93.71%
July 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y576)
= Exp(a + b × X576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 837 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4776 + -0.0019 × 837 + 2 × 0.1653)
= Exp(5.1909)
= $179.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y576)
= Exp(a + b × X576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 837 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4776 + -0.0019 × 837 – 2 × 0.1653)
= Exp(4.5297)
= $92.73
March 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4776 + -0.0019 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1653)
= Exp(3.2817)
= $26.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4776 + -0.0019 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1653)
= Exp(2.6205)
= $13.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.60% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of March 17, 2026 was $17.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 7, 2025
End date: March 17, 2026
a = 4.9228
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0787
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0787) – 1
= 37.00%
January 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9228 + -0.0010 × 1,391 + 2 × 0.0787)
= Exp(3.6814)
= $39.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9228 + -0.0010 × 1,391 – 2 × 0.0787)
= Exp(3.3666)
= $28.98
March 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9228 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0787)
= Exp(3.2449)
= $25.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9228 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0787)
= Exp(2.9301)
= $18.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 30.72% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of March 17, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.45 (7.74%).