# MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starch food ingredients. The company is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.60% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of August 13, 2024 was $85.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.48% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of August 13, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.48 (5.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of MGPI price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 13, 2022

End date: August 13, 2024

a = 5.2389

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0871

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1

= -15.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0871) – 1

= 41.69%

#### July 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{733})

= Exp(a + b × X_{733} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,064 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.2389 + -0.0005 × 1,064 + 2 × 0.0871)

= Exp(4.9188)

= $136.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{733})

= Exp(a + b × X_{733} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,064 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.2389 + -0.0005 × 1,064 – 2 × 0.0871)

= Exp(4.5703)

= $96.58

#### August 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.2389 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0871)

= Exp(4.5648)

= $96.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.2389 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0871)

= Exp(4.2163)

= $67.78

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.60% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of August 13, 2024 was $85.14 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2023

End date: August 13, 2024

a = 6.3877

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0589

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1

= -34.48%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0589) – 1

= 26.59%

#### July 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{982})

= Exp(a + b × X_{982} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,427 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.3877 + -0.0012 × 1,427 + 2 × 0.0589)

= Exp(4.8524)

= $128.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{982})

= Exp(a + b × X_{982} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,427 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.3877 + -0.0012 × 1,427 – 2 × 0.0589)

= Exp(4.6167)

= $101.16

#### August 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.3877 + -0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0589)

= Exp(4.3902)

= $80.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.3877 + -0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0589)

= Exp(4.1544)

= $63.72

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.48% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of August 13, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.48 (5.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.