# MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starch food ingredients. The company is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.24% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $45.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.29 (31.87%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.93% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of November 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.06 (22.29%).

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of MGPI price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 1, 2022

End date: October 17, 2024

a = 5.1421

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0862

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1

= -14.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0862) – 1

= 41.15%

#### July 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{669})

= Exp(a + b × X_{669} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 970 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.1421 + -0.0004 × 970 + 2 × 0.0862)

= Exp(4.9060)

= $135.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{669})

= Exp(a + b × X_{669} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 970 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.1421 + -0.0004 × 970 – 2 × 0.0862)

= Exp(4.5614)

= $95.72

#### October 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,246})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,246} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.1421 + -0.0004 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0862)

= Exp(4.5528)

= $94.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,246})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,246} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.1421 + -0.0004 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0862)

= Exp(4.2082)

= $67.23

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.24% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of November 1, 2024 was $45.52 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.29 (31.87%).

### Secondary Trend

Start date: June 29, 2023

End date: November 1, 2024

a = 5.9601

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0914

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1

= -28.93%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0914) – 1

= 44.17%

#### June 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{918})

= Exp(a + b × X_{918} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,333 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9601 + -0.0009 × 1,333 + 2 × 0.0914)

= Exp(4.8956)

= $133.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{918})

= Exp(a + b × X_{918} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,333 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9601 + -0.0009 × 1,333 – 2 × 0.0914)

= Exp(4.5298)

= $92.74

#### November 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9601 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0914)

= Exp(4.4361)

= $84.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.9601 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0914)

= Exp(4.0703)

= $58.58

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 28.93% per annum.
- MGPI price at the close of November 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.06 (22.29%).