# MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI)

MGP Ingredients, Inc. produces and supplies distilled spirits and specialty wheat proteins and starch food ingredients. The company is headquartered in Atchison, Kansas.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.60% per annum.
• MGPI price at the close of August 13, 2024 was \$85.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.48% per annum.
• MGPI price at the close of August 13, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by \$4.48 (5.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 13, 2022
End date: August 13, 2024

a = 5.2389

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0871

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.60%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0871) – 1
= 41.69%

#### July 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y733)
= Exp(a + b × X733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2389 + -0.0005 × 1,064 + 2 × 0.0871)
= Exp(4.9188)
= \$136.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y733)
= Exp(a + b × X733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2389 + -0.0005 × 1,064 – 2 × 0.0871)
= Exp(4.5703)
= \$96.58

#### August 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2389 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0871)
= Exp(4.5648)
= \$96.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2389 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0871)
= Exp(4.2163)
= \$67.78

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.60% per annum.
• MGPI price at the close of August 13, 2024 was \$85.14 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: July 11, 2023
End date: August 13, 2024

a = 6.3877

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0589

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.48%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0589) – 1
= 26.59%

#### July 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3877 + -0.0012 × 1,427 + 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(4.8524)
= \$128.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y982)
= Exp(a + b × X982 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3877 + -0.0012 × 1,427 – 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(4.6167)
= \$101.16

#### August 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3877 + -0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(4.3902)
= \$80.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3877 + -0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0589)
= Exp(4.1544)
= \$63.72

#### Description

• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.48% per annum.
• MGPI price at the close of August 13, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by \$4.48 (5.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

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