Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)
Constellation Brands, Inc., headquartered in Victor, New York, is an American producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.52% per annum.
- STZ price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $261.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.44% per annum.
- STZ price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 16, 2020
End date: March 7, 2024
a = 5.2909
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0506
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0506) – 1
= 22.46%
December 16, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y404)
= Exp(a + b × X404 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2909 + 0.0001 × 583 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.4629)
= $235.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y404)
= Exp(a + b × X404 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2909 + 0.0001 × 583 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.2603)
= $192.54
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2909 + 0.0001 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.6055)
= $271.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2909 + 0.0001 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0506)
= Exp(5.4029)
= $222.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.52% per annum.
- STZ price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $261.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 6, 2023
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 4.2963
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0220
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0220) – 1
= 9.18%
October 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2963 + 0.0007 × 1,607 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(5.4762)
= $238.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2963 + 0.0007 × 1,607 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(5.3884)
= $218.85
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2963 + 0.0007 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(5.6219)
= $276.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2963 + 0.0007 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(5.5340)
= $253.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.44% per annum.
- STZ price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.