MSA Safety (MSA)
MSA Safety Incorporated develops, manufactures, and supplies safety products that protect people and facility infrastructure in the oil, gas, petrochemical, fire, construction, industrial manufacturing, utility, military, and mining industries in America. North, Latin America and internationally. . The company is headquartered in Cranberry Township, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.79% per annum.
- MSA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $189.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.88% per annum.
- MSA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.0498
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0615
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0615) – 1
= 27.91%
April 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0498 + 0.0007 × 1,002 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(4.8461)
= $127.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y692)
= Exp(a + b × X692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0498 + 0.0007 × 1,002 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(4.5999)
= $99.48
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0498 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(5.3984)
= $221.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0498 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0615)
= Exp(5.1522)
= $172.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.79% per annum.
- MSA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $189.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.5017
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0497
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0497) – 1
= 22.01%
June 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y976)
= Exp(a + b × X976 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5017 + 0.0004 × 1,415 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.1725)
= $176.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y976)
= Exp(a + b × X976 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5017 + 0.0004 × 1,415 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(4.9736)
= $144.54
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5017 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.3377)
= $208.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5017 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0497)
= Exp(5.1387)
= $170.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.88% per annum.
- MSA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.