Stock Price Trends

Interface Inc (TILE)

Interface, Inc., a modular flooring company, designs, produces and sells modular carpet products primarily in the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.03% per annum.
  • TILE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $17.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.41% per annum.
  • TILE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.33 (1.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TILE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024

a = -0.4555

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0881

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 94.03%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0881) – 1
= 42.25%

March 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4555 + 0.0018 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(2.1233)
= $8.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4555 + 0.0018 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(1.7709)
= $5.88

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4555 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(3.0331)
= $20.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4555 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0881)
= Exp(2.6807)
= $14.60

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 94.03% per annum.
  • TILE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $17.40 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 3.1190

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0515

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0515) – 1
= 22.89%

February 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1190 + -0.0002 × 1,674 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.8689)
= $17.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1190 + -0.0002 × 1,674 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.6627)
= $14.34

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1190 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.8372)
= $17.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1190 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.6311)
= $13.89

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.41% per annum.
  • TILE price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.33 (1.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.