National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)
National Storage Affiliates Trust is a Maryland real estate investment trust focused on the ownership, operation and acquisition of storage properties located within the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas of the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.40% per annum.
- NSA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $43.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.76 (41.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.97% per annum.
- NSA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 6, 2021
End date: December 4, 2023
a = 4.5590
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0987
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0987) – 1
= 48.41%
July 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y488)
= Exp(a + b × X488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 708 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5590 + -0.0007 × 708 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.2394)
= $69.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y488)
= Exp(a + b × X488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 708 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5590 + -0.0007 × 708 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(3.8445)
= $46.74
December 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5590 + -0.0007 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(3.5960)
= $36.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5590 + -0.0007 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(3.2012)
= $24.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.40% per annum.
- NSA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $43.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.76 (41.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 20, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.1746
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0718
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0718) – 1
= 33.26%
July 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1746 + 0.0008 × 1,452 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.5404)
= $34.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1746 + 0.0008 × 1,452 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.2533)
= $25.88
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1746 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.8535)
= $47.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1746 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0718)
= Exp(3.5664)
= $35.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.97% per annum.
- NSA price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.