Public Storage (PSA)
Public Storage is an American international self storage company headquartered in Glendale, California, that is run as a real estate investment trust (REIT).
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.06% per annum.
- PSA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $294.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 77.59% per annum.
- PSA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2021
End date: June 17, 2024
a = 5.8688
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0657
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0657) – 1
= 30.05%
October 14, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y560)
= Exp(a + b × X560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8688 + -0.0002 × 811 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(5.8612)
= $351.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y560)
= Exp(a + b × X560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8688 + -0.0002 × 811 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(5.5984)
= $270.01
June 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8688 + -0.0002 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(5.6937)
= $297.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8688 + -0.0002 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0657)
= Exp(5.4310)
= $228.37
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.06% per annum.
- PSA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $294.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.8351
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0231
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 77.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0231) – 1
= 9.68%
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8351 + 0.0016 × 1,725 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.5955)
= $269.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8351 + 0.0016 × 1,725 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.5031)
= $245.46
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8351 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.7544)
= $315.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8351 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(5.6621)
= $287.74
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 77.59% per annum.
- PSA price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.