Stock Price Trends

SpartanNash Co (SPTN)

SpartanNash Company distributes and retails food products. The company is headquartered in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.66% per annum.
  • SPTN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $19.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.56 (14.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.34% per annum.
  • SPTN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPTN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 3, 2022
End date: August 14, 2024

a = 3.8676

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0740

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0740) – 1
= 34.44%

March 3, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y464)
= Exp(a + b × X464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8676 + -0.0006 × 672 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(3.5895)
= $36.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y464)
= Exp(a + b × X464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8676 + -0.0006 × 672 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(3.2935)
= $26.94

August 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8676 + -0.0006 × 1,567 + 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(3.0220)
= $20.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8676 + -0.0006 × 1,567 – 2 × 0.0740)
= Exp(2.7260)
= $15.27

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.66% per annum.
  • SPTN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $19.99 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.56 (14.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 3.2611

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0573

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0573) – 1
= 25.73%

March 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2611 + -0.0002 × 1,047 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(3.1876)
= $24.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2611 + -0.0002 × 1,047 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(2.9586)
= $19.27

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2611 + -0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(3.0480)
= $21.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2611 + -0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0573)
= Exp(2.8190)
= $16.76

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.34% per annum.
  • SPTN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.