Stock Price Trends

Terreno Realty Corporation (TRNO)

Terreno Realty Corporation and together with its subsidiaries, the?

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.81% per annum.
  • TRNO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $56.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.28% per annum.
  • TRNO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TRNO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023

a = 4.2376

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0828

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0828) – 1
= 39.28%

May 24, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + -0.0002 × 389 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.3281)
= $75.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + -0.0002 × 389 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(3.9968)
= $54.42

December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + -0.0002 × 1,321 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.1480)
= $63.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + -0.0002 × 1,321 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(3.8167)
= $45.45

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.81% per annum.
  • TRNO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $56.68 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 18, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 3.8478

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0613

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0613) – 1
= 27.80%

May 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y517)
= Exp(a + b × X517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8478 + 0.0002 × 748 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(4.0953)
= $60.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y517)
= Exp(a + b × X517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8478 + 0.0002 × 748 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(3.8501)
= $47.00

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8478 + 0.0002 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(4.2707)
= $71.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8478 + 0.0002 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0613)
= Exp(4.0254)
= $56.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.28% per annum.
  • TRNO price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.