STAG Industrial Inc (STAG)
STAG Industrial, Inc. (NYSE: STAG) is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition and operation of single-tenant industrial properties throughout the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.78% per annum.
- STAG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $65.06 (62.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.54% per annum.
- STAG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STAG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 20, 2021
End date: January 7, 2022
a = 2.7843
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0276
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0276) – 1
= 11.66%
April 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7843 + 0.0011 × 634 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(3.5060)
= $33.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7843 + 0.0011 × 634 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(3.3957)
= $29.84
January 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7843 + 0.0011 × 896 + 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(3.7815)
= $43.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 896 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7843 + 0.0011 × 896 – 2 × 0.0276)
= Exp(3.6712)
= $39.30
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.78% per annum.
- STAG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $39.41 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $65.06 (62.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 20, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.5081
b = 0.0000
s = 0.1022
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1022) – 1
= 50.48%
April 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5081 + 0.0000 × 634 + 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(3.7218)
= $41.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5081 + 0.0000 × 634 – 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(3.3132)
= $27.47
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5081 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(3.7395)
= $42.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5081 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1022)
= Exp(3.3308)
= $27.96
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.54% per annum.
- STAG price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.