First Industrial Realty Trust Inc (FR)
First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: FR) is a leading fully integrated industrial real estate owner, operator, and developer with a history of providing industry-leading customer service to multinational corporations and regional clients.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.32% per annum.
- FR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $52.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 553.91% per annum.
- FR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2021
End date: July 17, 2024
a = 4.0302
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0766
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0766) – 1
= 35.84%
June 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0302 + -0.0001 × 682 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.1201)
= $61.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0302 + -0.0001 × 682 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.8139)
= $45.32
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0302 + -0.0001 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.0149)
= $55.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0302 + -0.0001 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.7087)
= $40.80
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.32% per annum.
- FR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $52.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -5.4103
b = 0.0051
s = 0.0174
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 553.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.22%
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4103 + 0.0051 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.8644)
= $47.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4103 + 0.0051 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.7947)
= $44.46
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4103 + 0.0051 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(4.0187)
= $55.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4103 + 0.0051 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.9490)
= $51.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 553.91% per annum.
- FR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.