Stock Price Trends

First Industrial Realty Trust Inc (FR)

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: FR) is a leading fully integrated industrial real estate owner, operator, and developer with a history of providing industry-leading customer service to multinational corporations and regional clients.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.41% per annum.
  • FR price at the close of September 16, 2025 was $52.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.54 (1.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.63% per annum.
  • FR price at the close of September 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 7, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024

a = 3.9615

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0766

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0766) – 1
= 35.86%

June 7, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y180)
= Exp(a + b × X180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9615 + -0.0001 × 263 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.0897)
= $59.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y180)
= Exp(a + b × X180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9615 + -0.0001 × 263 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.7833)
= $43.96

July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9615 + -0.0001 × 1,392 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.9825)
= $53.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y957)
= Exp(a + b × X957 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9615 + -0.0001 × 1,392 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.6761)
= $39.49

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.41% per annum.
  • FR price at the close of September 16, 2025 was $52.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.54 (1.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: September 16, 2025

a = 3.7618

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0629

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.61%

May 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y412)
= Exp(a + b × X412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7618 + 0.0001 × 596 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.9458)
= $51.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y412)
= Exp(a + b × X412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7618 + 0.0001 × 596 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.6942)
= $40.21

September 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7618 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(4.0657)
= $58.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7618 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.8141)
= $45.34

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.63% per annum.
  • FR price at the close of September 16, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.