Stock Price Trends

First Industrial Realty Trust Inc (FR)

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: FR) is a leading fully integrated industrial real estate owner, operator, and developer with a history of providing industry-leading customer service to multinational corporations and regional clients.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.32% per annum.
  • FR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $52.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 553.91% per annum.
  • FR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 7, 2021
End date: July 17, 2024

a = 4.0302

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0766

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0766) – 1
= 35.84%

June 7, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0302 + -0.0001 × 682 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.1201)
= $61.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0302 + -0.0001 × 682 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.8139)
= $45.32

July 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0302 + -0.0001 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(4.0149)
= $55.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0302 + -0.0001 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0766)
= Exp(3.7087)
= $40.80

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.32% per annum.
  • FR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $52.68 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 25, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024

a = -5.4103

b = 0.0051

s = 0.0174

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 553.91%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0174) – 1
= 7.22%

June 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4103 + 0.0051 × 1,796 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.8644)
= $47.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4103 + 0.0051 × 1,796 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.7947)
= $44.46

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4103 + 0.0051 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(4.0187)
= $55.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.4103 + 0.0051 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0174)
= Exp(3.9490)
= $51.88

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 553.91% per annum.
  • FR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.