John Wiley & Sons (WLY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.78% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of October 17, 2025 was $37.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.97 (7.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.91% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of October 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: May 21, 2025
a = 2.9188
b = 0.0005
s = 0.1070
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1070) – 1
= 53.41%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 871 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9188 + 0.0005 × 871 + 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(3.6029)
= $36.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y600)
= Exp(a + b × X600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 871 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9188 + 0.0005 × 871 – 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(3.1749)
= $23.93
May 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9188 + 0.0005 × 1,675 + 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(4.0369)
= $56.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9188 + 0.0005 × 1,675 – 2 × 0.1070)
= Exp(3.6089)
= $36.93
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.78% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of October 17, 2025 was $37.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.97 (7.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: October 17, 2025
a = 4.4031
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0586
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0586) – 1
= 26.39%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y936)
= Exp(a + b × X936 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,361 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4031 + -0.0004 × 1,361 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.9619)
= $52.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y936)
= Exp(a + b × X936 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,361 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4031 + -0.0004 × 1,361 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.7277)
= $41.58
October 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4031 + -0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.7720)
= $43.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4031 + -0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(3.5378)
= $34.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.91% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of October 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.