John Wiley & Sons (WLY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.42% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of August 29, 2025 was $40.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.11 (11.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.14% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of August 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: January 22, 2025
a = 2.5822
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0999
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0999) – 1
= 49.11%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y669)
= Exp(a + b × X669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5822 + 0.0008 × 972 + 2 × 0.0999)
= Exp(3.5499)
= $34.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y669)
= Exp(a + b × X669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5822 + 0.0008 × 972 – 2 × 0.0999)
= Exp(3.1504)
= $23.34
January 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5822 + 0.0008 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0999)
= Exp(4.0484)
= $57.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5822 + 0.0008 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0999)
= Exp(3.6489)
= $38.43
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.42% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of August 29, 2025 was $40.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.11 (11.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 11, 2024
End date: August 29, 2025
a = 4.4429
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0605
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0605) – 1
= 27.37%
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4429 + -0.0004 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(3.9759)
= $53.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4429 + -0.0004 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(3.7339)
= $41.84
August 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4429 + -0.0004 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(3.8030)
= $44.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4429 + -0.0004 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0605)
= Exp(3.5611)
= $35.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.14% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of August 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.