John Wiley & Sons (WLY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.98% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $46.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.30 (44.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.56% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.66 (3.68%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2021
End date: March 6, 2024
a = 4.3881
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0713
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0713) – 1
= 32.98%
March 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y420)
= Exp(a + b × X420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3881 + -0.0006 × 609 + 2 × 0.0713)
= Exp(4.1795)
= $65.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y420)
= Exp(a + b × X420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3881 + -0.0006 × 609 – 2 × 0.0713)
= Exp(3.8944)
= $49.13
March 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3881 + -0.0006 × 1,685 + 2 × 0.0713)
= Exp(3.5590)
= $35.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,685 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3881 + -0.0006 × 1,685 – 2 × 0.0713)
= Exp(3.2739)
= $26.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.98% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $46.68 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $14.30 (44.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 10, 2023
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 1.3294
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0389
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0389) – 1
= 16.85%
October 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,537 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3294 + 0.0013 × 1,537 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.4273)
= $30.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,537 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3294 + 0.0013 × 1,537 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.2716)
= $26.35
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3294 + 0.0013 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.7874)
= $44.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3294 + 0.0013 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0389)
= Exp(3.6317)
= $37.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.56% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.66 (3.68%).