Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is an American provider of human resources management software and services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.69% per annum.
- ADP price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $241.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.34% per annum.
- ADP price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 15, 2021
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 5.2088
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0611
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 5.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0611) – 1
= 27.68%
October 15, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 893 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2088 + 0.0002 × 893 + 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(5.4664)
= $236.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 893 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2088 + 0.0002 × 893 – 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(5.2220)
= $185.30
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2088 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(5.6075)
= $272.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2088 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(5.3631)
= $213.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.69% per annum.
- ADP price at the close of May 3, 2024 was $241.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: May 3, 2024
a = 4.3246
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0236
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0236) – 1
= 9.88%
October 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3246 + 0.0007 × 1,633 + 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.4530)
= $233.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3246 + 0.0007 × 1,633 – 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.3587)
= $212.45
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3246 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.5794)
= $264.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3246 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(5.4852)
= $241.09
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 27.34% per annum.
- ADP price at the close of May 3, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.