Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is a leading provider of human capital management (HCM) solutions, offering a comprehensive suite of software and services that streamline payroll, talent management, and compliance for businesses of all sizes. With a robust portfolio that integrates advanced analytics and cloud-based technology, ADP empowers organizations to enhance workforce productivity and optimize HR operations. Leveraging decades of industry experience and a strong reputation for innovation, ADP caters to the evolving needs of its diverse clientele, positioning itself as a pivotal partner in facilitating strategic workforce management and operational efficiency.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.22% per annum.
- ADP price at the close of January 30, 2026 was $246.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.03% per annum.
- ADP price at the close of January 30, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.29 (0.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2025
End date: January 30, 2026
a = 7.3159
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0299
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.71%
May 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,564 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3159 + -0.0010 × 1,564 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.8337)
= $341.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,564 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3159 + -0.0010 × 1,564 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.7141)
= $303.10
January 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3159 + -0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.5774)
= $264.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3159 + -0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.4577)
= $234.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.22% per annum.
- ADP price at the close of January 30, 2026 was $246.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2025
End date: January 30, 2026
a = 5.2626
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0187
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0187) – 1
= 7.75%
October 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2626 + 0.0002 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.5776)
= $264.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2626 + 0.0002 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.5030)
= $245.42
January 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2626 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.5925)
= $268.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2626 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.5179)
= $249.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.03% per annum.
- ADP price at the close of January 30, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.29 (0.92%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.