Paylocity Holdng (PCTY)
Paylocity Holding Corporation (PCTY) is a leading provider of cloud-based payroll and human capital management software solutions tailored for midsize organizations across the United States. With its headquarters in Schaumburg, Illinois, Paylocity offers an integrated platform that enhances workforce management, streamlines payroll processing, and supports business growth through innovative technology. The company's commitment to delivering exceptional customer service and user-friendly technology positions it strongly in the competitive human capital management landscape. As businesses increasingly rely on digital solutions, Paylocity is well-equipped to capitalize on rising demand for efficient human resources and payroll services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.79% per annum.
- PCTY price at the close of March 25, 2026 was $109.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.20% per annum.
- PCTY price at the close of March 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PCTY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 23, 2025
End date: March 25, 2026
a = 7.3396
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0729
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0729) – 1
= 33.88%
January 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3396 + -0.0014 × 1,399 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(5.5407)
= $254.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3396 + -0.0014 × 1,399 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(5.2490)
= $190.37
March 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3396 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(4.9486)
= $140.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3396 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(4.6568)
= $105.30
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.79% per annum.
- PCTY price at the close of March 25, 2026 was $109.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 12, 2025
End date: March 25, 2026
a = 12.4854
b = -0.0043
s = 0.0675
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -79.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0675) – 1
= 30.98%
December 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.4854 + -0.0043 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(5.2117)
= $183.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.4854 + -0.0043 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.9418)
= $140.02
March 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.4854 + -0.0043 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.7685)
= $117.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.4854 + -0.0043 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0675)
= Exp(4.4986)
= $89.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.20% per annum.
- PCTY price at the close of March 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.