Stock Price Trends

Robert Half International Inc (RHI)

Robert Half International, or commonly referred as, Robert Half, is a global human resource consulting firm based in Menlo Park, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.85% per annum.
  • RHI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $59.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.34% per annum.
  • RHI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RHI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 23, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 4.8731

b = -0.0004

s = 0.1106

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1106) – 1
= 55.64%

July 23, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 728 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8731 + -0.0004 × 728 + 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(4.8201)
= $123.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y502)
= Exp(a + b × X502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 728 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8731 + -0.0004 × 728 – 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(4.3777)
= $79.66

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8731 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(4.4065)
= $81.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8731 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1106)
= Exp(3.9641)
= $52.68

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.85% per annum.
  • RHI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $59.92 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 6.8804

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0315

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.43%

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8804 + -0.0015 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.5268)
= $92.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8804 + -0.0015 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.4008)
= $81.52

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8804 + -0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.1889)
= $65.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8804 + -0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(4.0629)
= $58.14

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.34% per annum.
  • RHI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.