Alamo Group Inc (ALG)
Alamo Group Inc. designs, manufactures, distributes and services agricultural and infrastructure maintenance equipment for government and industrial use worldwide. The company is headquartered in Seguin, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.31% per annum.
- ALG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $175.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.05% per annum.
- ALG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: September 12, 2024
a = 7.0905
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0458
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.09%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0905 + -0.0011 × 1,592 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.4801)
= $239.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0905 + -0.0011 × 1,592 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.2970)
= $199.73
September 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0905 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.2299)
= $186.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0905 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(5.0468)
= $155.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.31% per annum.
- ALG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $175.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 11, 2024
End date: September 12, 2024
a = 4.7537
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0412
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0412) – 1
= 17.93%
June 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7537 + 0.0002 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(5.2476)
= $190.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7537 + 0.0002 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(5.0826)
= $161.20
September 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7537 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(5.2696)
= $194.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7537 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0412)
= Exp(5.1047)
= $164.80
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.05% per annum.
- ALG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.