Stock Price Trends

Alamo Group Inc. (ALG)

alamo group is a leader in the design, manufacture, distribution and service of high quality equipment for infrastructure maintenance, agriculture and other applications. our products include truck and tractor mounted mowing and other vegetation maintenance equipment, street sweepers, snow removal equipment, excavators, vacuum trucks, other industrial equipment, agricultural implements and related after-market parts and services. the company was founded in 1969 though some of our member companies have been in business over 100 years. we currently produce and assemble products in 25 principal facilities worldwide in the united states, england, france, canada, australia and brazil. our corporate offices are located in seguin, texas, and headquarters for our european operations are located in salford priors, england. our development as a company has been enhanced by approximately twenty-five acquisitions. alamo group went public in 1993 and since 1995 has been listed on the new york s

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.30% per annum.
  • ALG price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $202.68 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $29.33 (12.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.73% per annum.
  • ALG price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

April 29, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

August 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.30% per annum.
  • ALG price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $202.68 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $29.33 (12.64%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

October 17, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.73% per annum.
  • ALG price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.