# Alamo Group Inc (ALG)

Alamo Group Inc. designs, manufactures, distributes and services agricultural and infrastructure maintenance equipment for government and industrial use worldwide. The company is headquartered in Seguin, Texas.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.31% per annum.
- ALG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $175.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.05% per annum.
- ALG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of ALG price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: January 22, 2024

End date: September 12, 2024

a = 7.0905

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0458

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1

= -32.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1

= 20.09%

#### January 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,095})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,095} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,592 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.0905 + -0.0011 × 1,592 + 2 × 0.0458)

= Exp(5.4801)

= $239.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,095})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,095} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,592 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.0905 + -0.0011 × 1,592 – 2 × 0.0458)

= Exp(5.2970)

= $199.73

#### September 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.0905 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0458)

= Exp(5.2299)

= $186.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.0905 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0458)

= Exp(5.0468)

= $155.52

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.31% per annum.
- ALG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was $175.48 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: June 11, 2024

End date: September 12, 2024

a = 4.7537

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0412

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1

= 9.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0412) – 1

= 17.93%

#### June 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,193})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,193} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.7537 + 0.0002 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0412)

= Exp(5.2476)

= $190.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,193})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,193} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.7537 + 0.0002 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0412)

= Exp(5.0826)

= $161.20

#### September 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.7537 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0412)

= Exp(5.2696)

= $194.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.7537 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0412)

= Exp(5.1047)

= $164.80

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.05% per annum.
- ALG price at the close of September 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.