Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures and markets rail freight car equipment in North America, Europe and South America. The company is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 210.37% per annum.
- GBX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $51.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.26 (15.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 68.71% per annum.
- GBX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GBX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2023
End date: March 11, 2024
a = -1.4883
b = 0.0031
s = 0.0330
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0031) – 1
= 210.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0330) – 1
= 14.11%
October 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4883 + 0.0031 × 1,619 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(3.6014)
= $36.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4883 + 0.0031 × 1,619 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(3.4695)
= $32.12
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4883 + 0.0031 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(4.0296)
= $56.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4883 + 0.0031 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(3.8977)
= $49.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 210.37% per annum.
- GBX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $51.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.26 (15.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 1.3781
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0285
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 68.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0285) – 1
= 12.07%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3781 + 0.0014 × 1,669 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(3.8266)
= $45.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3781 + 0.0014 × 1,669 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(3.7126)
= $40.96
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3781 + 0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(4.0487)
= $57.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3781 + 0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(3.9347)
= $51.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 68.71% per annum.
- GBX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.