Astec Industries Inc (ASTE)
Astec Industries, Inc. designs, designs, manufactures, and markets equipment and components used primarily in highway construction and related construction activities in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.10% per annum.
- ASTE price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $33.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.45 (46.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.35% per annum.
- ASTE price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ASTE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: January 24, 2023
a = 4.5838
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1252) – 1
= 65.02%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5838 + -0.0009 × 323 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(4.5298)
= $92.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y224)
= Exp(a + b × X224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5838 + -0.0009 × 323 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(4.0289)
= $56.20
January 24, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y739)
= Exp(a + b × X739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5838 + -0.0009 × 1,071 + 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(3.8250)
= $45.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y739)
= Exp(a + b × X739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5838 + -0.0009 × 1,071 – 2 × 0.1252)
= Exp(3.3241)
= $27.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.10% per annum.
- ASTE price at the close of February 14, 2025 was $33.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.45 (46.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 17, 2022
End date: February 14, 2025
a = 3.9487
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1221
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1221) – 1
= 62.95%
February 17, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y506)
= Exp(a + b × X506 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 730 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9487 + -0.0002 × 730 + 2 × 0.1221)
= Exp(4.0184)
= $55.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y506)
= Exp(a + b × X506 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 730 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9487 + -0.0002 × 730 – 2 × 0.1221)
= Exp(3.5301)
= $34.13
February 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9487 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1221)
= Exp(3.7571)
= $42.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9487 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1221)
= Exp(3.2688)
= $26.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.35% per annum.
- ASTE price at the close of February 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.