Stock Price Trends

Astec Industries Inc (ASTE)

Astec Industries, Inc. designs, designs, manufactures, and markets equipment and components used primarily in highway construction and related construction activities in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.83% per annum.
  • ASTE price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $34.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.45% per annum.
  • ASTE price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ASTE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 24, 2020
End date: July 23, 2024

a = 4.4151

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1487

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.83%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1487) – 1
= 81.27%

November 24, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y339)
= Exp(a + b × X339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 489 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4151 + -0.0005 × 489 + 2 × 0.1487)
= Exp(4.4657)
= $86.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y339)
= Exp(a + b × X339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 489 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4151 + -0.0005 × 489 – 2 × 0.1487)
= Exp(3.8708)
= $47.98

July 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4151 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1487)
= Exp(3.7906)
= $44.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4151 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1487)
= Exp(3.1958)
= $24.43

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.83% per annum.
  • ASTE price at the close of July 23, 2024 was $34.95 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 4, 2022
End date: July 23, 2024

a = 3.9326

b = -0.0002

s = 0.1290

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1290) – 1
= 67.52%

March 4, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y659)
= Exp(a + b × X659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9326 + -0.0002 × 954 + 2 × 0.1290)
= Exp(4.0163)
= $55.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y659)
= Exp(a + b × X659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9326 + -0.0002 × 954 – 2 × 0.1290)
= Exp(3.5004)
= $33.13

July 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9326 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1290)
= Exp(3.8571)
= $47.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9326 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1290)
= Exp(3.3411)
= $28.25

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.45% per annum.
  • ASTE price at the close of July 23, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.