Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)
Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel products and services to residents of underserved cities in the United States. The company is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 97.93% per annum.
- ALGT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $46.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (9.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.65% per annum.
- ALGT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 14, 2025
End date: April 22, 2025
a = 22.9969
b = -0.0106
s = 0.0663
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0106) – 1
= -97.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0663) – 1
= 30.36%
January 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(22.9969 + -0.0106 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.8674)
= $129.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(22.9969 + -0.0106 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(4.6023)
= $99.71
April 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(22.9969 + -0.0106 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(3.8269)
= $45.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(22.9969 + -0.0106 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0663)
= Exp(3.5618)
= $35.23
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 97.93% per annum.
- ALGT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $46.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.95 (9.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 14.2162
b = -0.0057
s = 0.0548
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0057) – 1
= -87.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0548) – 1
= 24.51%
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2162 + -0.0057 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(4.1711)
= $64.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2162 + -0.0057 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(3.9519)
= $52.03
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2162 + -0.0057 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(3.8674)
= $47.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2162 + -0.0057 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(3.6482)
= $38.40
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.65% per annum.
- ALGT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.