Stock Price Trends

SkyWest Inc (SKYW)

SkyWest, Inc., operates a regional airline in the United States. The company is headquartered in St. George, Utah.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 167.17% per annum.
  • SKYW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $84.48 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.61% per annum.
  • SKYW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SKYW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024

a = -0.4000

b = 0.0027

s = 0.1073

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 167.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1073) – 1
= 53.62%

September 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4000 + 0.0027 × 1,152 + 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(2.9163)
= $18.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y794)
= Exp(a + b × X794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4000 + 0.0027 × 1,152 – 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(2.4869)
= $12.02

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4000 + 0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(4.7309)
= $113.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.4000 + 0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1073)
= Exp(4.3016)
= $73.82

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 167.17% per annum.
  • SKYW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $84.48 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 0.4785

b = 0.0022

s = 0.0711

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.91%

June 2, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4785 + 0.0022 × 1,407 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(3.6707)
= $39.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y970)
= Exp(a + b × X970 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4785 + 0.0022 × 1,407 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(3.3862)
= $29.55

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4785 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.5790)
= $97.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4785 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.2945)
= $73.29

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.61% per annum.
  • SKYW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.