Stock Price Trends

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (SNCY)

sun country airlines (mn airlines, llc, d.b.a. sun country airlines) is based in minneapolis/st. paul, minnesota. the award-winning airline, which flies to popular destinations in the u.s., mexico and the caribbean, has earned a reputation for offering world-class service at an affordable price. sun country airlines is ranked as one of the top 10 domestic airlines by conde nast traveler readers’ choice survey, 2014. the airline offers vacation packages through sun country vacations, a program that allows travelers to book airfare, hotel, rental cars, tour attractions and more in a single, convenient transaction. the hometown airline also offers sun country charters—taking your group flight, private charter or leased aircraft virtually anywhere with a commitment to service, consistent on-time performance, dependable maintenance and a customized and reliable charter experience. for more information, including a complete list of destinations and details on sun country vacations, charters

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.74% per annum.
  • SNCY price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $15.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.10 (12.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.03% per annum.
  • SNCY price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNCY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

June 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

August 3, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 10.74% per annum.
  • SNCY price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $15.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.10 (12.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

January 31, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

February 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.03% per annum.
  • SNCY price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.