American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)
American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE: AMH) is a leader in the single-family rental industry and American Homes 4 Rent is fast becoming a nationally recognized rental housing brand, known for its high quality, good value and satisfaction. of tenants.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.90% per annum.
- AMH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $35.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.87 (19.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.87% per annum.
- AMH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2021
End date: May 4, 2023
a = 3.8958
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0612
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0612) – 1
= 27.71%
April 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8958 + -0.0003 × 637 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(3.7970)
= $44.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y439)
= Exp(a + b × X439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8958 + -0.0003 × 637 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(3.5524)
= $34.90
May 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,375 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8958 + -0.0003 × 1,375 + 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(3.5408)
= $34.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,375 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8958 + -0.0003 × 1,375 – 2 × 0.0612)
= Exp(3.2962)
= $27.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.90% per annum.
- AMH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $35.39 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.87 (19.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.0530
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0398
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0398) – 1
= 17.28%
September 26, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y797)
= Exp(a + b × X797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0530 + 0.0003 × 1,155 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.4875)
= $32.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y797)
= Exp(a + b × X797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0530 + 0.0003 × 1,155 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.3281)
= $27.89
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0530 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.6930)
= $40.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0530 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0398)
= Exp(3.5337)
= $34.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.87% per annum.
- AMH price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.