Stock Price Trends

American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)

American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE: AMH) is a prominent player in the single-family rental sector, distinguished for its commitment to providing high-quality, well-maintained rental properties. The company has established itself as a trusted brand in residential leasing, focusing on delivering value and enhancing tenant satisfaction through exceptional service and responsiveness. With a growing portfolio of homes across the United States, American Homes 4 Rent is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for single-family rentals, driven by demographic trends and evolving housing preferences.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.99% per annum.
  • AMH price at the close of December 15, 2025 was $31.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.68% per annum.
  • AMH price at the close of December 15, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 1, 2025
End date: December 15, 2025

a = 5.0004

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0147

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.99%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0147) – 1
= 6.05%

May 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0004 + -0.0009 × 1,597 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.6536)
= $38.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,597 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0004 + -0.0009 × 1,597 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.5948)
= $36.41

December 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0004 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.4571)
= $31.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0004 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(3.3983)
= $29.91

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.99% per annum.
  • AMH price at the close of December 15, 2025 was $31.41 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 21, 2025
End date: December 15, 2025

a = 7.4825

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0160

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0160) – 1
= 6.61%

November 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4825 + -0.0022 × 1,801 + 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(3.4988)
= $33.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4825 + -0.0022 × 1,801 – 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(3.4348)
= $31.03

December 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4825 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(3.4453)
= $31.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4825 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0160)
= Exp(3.3813)
= $29.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.68% per annum.
  • AMH price at the close of December 15, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.