Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc (ELS)
We are a self-managed and self-managed real estate investment trust (?
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.10% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $63.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.49% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 4.3614
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0601
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0601) – 1
= 27.16%
June 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3614 + -0.0002 × 403 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.4121)
= $82.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3614 + -0.0002 × 403 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.1718)
= $64.83
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3614 + -0.0002 × 1,532 + 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(4.2174)
= $67.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3614 + -0.0002 × 1,532 – 2 × 0.0601)
= Exp(3.9772)
= $53.37
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.10% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $63.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: April 4, 2025
a = 4.0028
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0450
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.72%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0028 + 0.0001 × 873 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.1978)
= $66.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y602)
= Exp(a + b × X602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0028 + 0.0001 × 873 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.0178)
= $55.58
April 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0028 + 0.0001 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.3093)
= $74.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0028 + 0.0001 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.1293)
= $62.13
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.49% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.