Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc (ELS)
We are a self-managed and self-managed real estate investment trust (?
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.91% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $66.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.81 (11.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.58% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 6, 2021
End date: July 11, 2023
a = 4.6094
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0536
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0536) – 1
= 23.93%
July 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y489)
= Exp(a + b × X489 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6094 + -0.0003 × 711 + 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(4.4696)
= $87.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y489)
= Exp(a + b × X489 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6094 + -0.0003 × 711 – 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(4.2550)
= $70.46
July 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6094 + -0.0003 × 1,446 + 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(4.2143)
= $67.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y995)
= Exp(a + b × X995 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6094 + -0.0003 × 1,446 – 2 × 0.0536)
= Exp(3.9997)
= $54.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.91% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $66.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.81 (11.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: March 21, 2024
a = 3.9195
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0393
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0393) – 1
= 17.03%
September 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,151 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9195 + 0.0002 × 1,151 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(4.1991)
= $66.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y793)
= Exp(a + b × X793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,151 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9195 + 0.0002 × 1,151 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(4.0418)
= $56.93
March 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9195 + 0.0002 × 1,700 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(4.2950)
= $73.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9195 + 0.0002 × 1,700 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(4.1377)
= $62.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.58% per annum.
- ELS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.