Stock Price Trends

Arch Resources Inc (ARCH)

Arch Resources, Inc. produces and sells thermal and metallurgical coal from surface and underground mines. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.14% per annum.
  • ARCH price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $170.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $126.53 (42.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.31% per annum.
  • ARCH price at the close of May 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2020
End date: March 10, 2023

a = 2.4245

b = 0.0020

s = 0.1595

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 105.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1595) – 1
= 89.25%

March 9, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y197)
= Exp(a + b × X197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4245 + 0.0020 × 286 + 2 × 0.1595)
= Exp(3.3065)
= $27.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y197)
= Exp(a + b × X197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4245 + 0.0020 × 286 – 2 × 0.1595)
= Exp(2.6686)
= $14.42

March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4245 + 0.0020 × 1,382 + 2 × 0.1595)
= Exp(5.4639)
= $236.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4245 + 0.0020 × 1,382 – 2 × 0.1595)
= Exp(4.8261)
= $124.72

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.14% per annum.
  • ARCH price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $170.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $126.53 (42.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: May 24, 2024

a = 4.2376

b = 0.0005

s = 0.1139

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1139) – 1
= 57.71%

February 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,007 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + 0.0005 × 1,007 + 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(4.9292)
= $138.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,007 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + 0.0005 × 1,007 – 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(4.4736)
= $87.67

May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + 0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(5.3050)
= $201.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + 0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(4.8494)
= $127.67

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.31% per annum.
  • ARCH price at the close of May 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.