# Arch Resources Inc (ARCH)

Arch Resources, Inc. produces and sells thermal and metallurgical coal from surface and underground mines. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.14% per annum.
• ARCH price at the close of May 24, 2024 was \$170.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by \$126.53 (42.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.31% per annum.
• ARCH price at the close of May 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARCH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2020
End date: March 10, 2023

a = 2.4245

b = 0.0020

s = 0.1595

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 105.14%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1595) – 1
= 89.25%

#### March 9, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y197)
= Exp(a + b × X197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4245 + 0.0020 × 286 + 2 × 0.1595)
= Exp(3.3065)
= \$27.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y197)
= Exp(a + b × X197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4245 + 0.0020 × 286 – 2 × 0.1595)
= Exp(2.6686)
= \$14.42

#### March 10, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4245 + 0.0020 × 1,382 + 2 × 0.1595)
= Exp(5.4639)
= \$236.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,382 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4245 + 0.0020 × 1,382 – 2 × 0.1595)
= Exp(4.8261)
= \$124.72

#### Description

• The primary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the primary trend is 105.14% per annum.
• ARCH price at the close of May 24, 2024 was \$170.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by \$126.53 (42.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: February 28, 2022
End date: May 24, 2024

a = 4.2376

b = 0.0005

s = 0.1139

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.31%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1139) – 1
= 57.71%

#### February 28, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,007 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + 0.0005 × 1,007 + 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(4.9292)
= \$138.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,007 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + 0.0005 × 1,007 – 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(4.4736)
= \$87.67

#### May 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + 0.0005 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(5.3050)
= \$201.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2376 + 0.0005 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(4.8494)
= \$127.67

#### Description

• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.31% per annum.
• ARCH price at the close of May 24, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.